Form 8-K
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC false 0001042046 0001042046 2019-10-29 2019-10-29 0001042046 us-gaap:CommonStockMember 2019-10-29 2019-10-29 0001042046 afg:M614SubordinatedDebenturesDueSeptember302054Member 2019-10-29 2019-10-29 0001042046 afg:M6SubordinatedDebenturesDueNovember152055Member 2019-10-29 2019-10-29 0001042046 afg:M5.875SubordinatedDebenturesDueMarch302059Member 2019-10-29 2019-10-29

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 OR 15(d)

of The Securities Exchange Act of 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): October 29, 2019

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Ohio

 

1-13653

 

31-1544320

(State or other jurisdiction

of incorporation)

 

(Commission

File Number)

 

(IRS Employer

Identification No.)

301 East Fourth Street, Cincinnati, OH

 

45202

(Address of principal executive offices)

 

(Zip Code)

Registrant’s telephone number, including area code 513-579-2121

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):

  Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

  Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

  Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

  Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each class

 

Trading Symbol(s)

 

Name of each exchange on which registered

Common Stock

 

AFG

 

New York Stock Exchange

6-1/4% Subordinated Debentures due September 30, 2054

 

AFGE

 

New York Stock Exchange

6% Subordinated Debentures due November 15, 2055

 

AFGH

 

New York Stock Exchange

5.875% Subordinated Debentures due March 30, 2059

 

AFGB

 

New York Stock Exchange

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter).

Emerging growth company  

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act.  


Section 2 - Financial Information

Item 2.02 Results Of Operations And Financial Condition.

Reference is made to the press release of American Financial Group, Inc. (the “Company”) relating to the announcement of the Company’s results of operations for the third quarter of 2019 and the availability of the Investor Supplement on the Company’s website. The press release was issued on October 29, 2019. A copy of the press release is attached to this Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and a copy of the Investor Supplement is attached as Exhibit 99.2 and are incorporated herein by reference.

The information contained herein shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 as amended (the “Exchange Act), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act.

Section 9 - Financial Statements and Exhibits

Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits.

  (a) Financial statements of business acquired. Not applicable.

  (b) Pro forma financial information. Not applicable.

  (c) Shell company transactions. Not applicable

  (d) Exhibits

Exhibit No.

   

Description

         
 

99.1

   

Earnings Release dated October 29, 2019, reporting American Financial Group Inc. results for the quarter ended September 30, 2019.

         
 

99.2

   

Investor Supplement – Third Quarter 2019

         
 

101

   

Cover Page Interactive Data File - The cover page XBRL tags are embedded within the Inline XBRL document.

         
 

104

   

The cover page from this Current Report on Form 8-K, formatted as Inline XBRL.

2


SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

 

 

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.

             

Date: October 30, 2019

 

 

 

 

 

By:

 

/s/ Karl J. Grafe

 

 

 

Karl J. Grafe

 

 

 

Vice President

3

EX-99.1

Exhibit 99.1

 

LOGO

American Financial Group, Inc. Announces Third Quarter Results

 

   

Net earnings per share of $1.62 includes ($0.25) per share of after-tax A&E reserve strengthening, ($0.23) per share related to Annuity non-core items and ($0.15) per share in after-tax realized losses on securities.

 

   

Third quarter core net operating earnings of $2.25 per share

 

   

Third quarter annualized ROE of 11.0%; annualized core operating ROE of 15.3%

 

   

Full year 2019 core net operating earnings guidance revised to a narrowed range of $8.50 to $8.70 per share

CINCINNATI – October 29, 2019 – American Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE: AFG) today reported 2019 third quarter net earnings attributable to shareholders of $147 million ($1.62 per share) compared to $204 million ($2.26 per share) for the 2018 third quarter. Net earnings for the quarter include after-tax charges of $23 million ($0.25 per share) to strengthen the Company’s asbestos and environmental (“A&E”) reserves and $14 million ($0.15 per share) in after-tax realized losses on securities, including $20 million ($0.22 per share) in holding losses to adjust equity securities to fair value. Net earnings for the third quarter of 2019 also included a negative impact of $21 million ($0.23 per share) for annuity non-core items, including the impact of fair value accounting for fixed-indexed annuities (FIAs), the unlocking of actuarial assumptions and other items related to changes in the stock market and interest rates. Comparatively, net earnings in the 2018 third quarter included net after-tax non-core earnings of $6 million ($0.07 per share). Other details may be found in the table below. Book value per share was $70.14 per share at September 30, 2019. Annualized return on equity was 11.0% and 16.3% for the third quarters of 2019 and 2018, respectively.

Core net operating earnings were $205 million ($2.25 per share) for the 2019 third quarter, compared to $198 million ($2.19 per share) in the 2018 third quarter. Higher underwriting profit in our Specialty Property and Casualty (“P&C”) insurance operations and higher P&C net investment income were partially offset by lower core operating earnings in our Annuity Segment. In connection with AFG’s new definition of annuity core operating earnings, AFG’s core net operating earnings for the third quarter of 2019 exclude the impact of items that are not necessarily indicative of operating trends, and include an expense for the amortization of FIA option costs, which AFG believes better reflects the cost of funds for FIAs and AFG’s evaluation of the financial performance of its Annuity business. Book value per share, excluding unrealized gains related to fixed maturities, was $59.65 per share at September 30, 2019. Core net operating earnings for the third quarters of 2019 and 2018 generated annualized returns on equity of 15.3% and 15.8%, respectively.

As previously announced, beginning with the second quarter of 2019, AFG changed the way it defines annuity core operating earnings to exclude the impact of items that are not necessarily indicative of operating trends. Core net operating earnings for periods prior to the change have not been adjusted, however results for the three and nine month periods ended September 30, 2018 are reconciled to historically reported Annuity Segment core operating earnings on page 5 of this release. As a result, reported core net operating earnings for periods beginning with the second quarter of 2019 are not directly comparable to prior year periods.

AFG’s net earnings attributable to shareholders, determined in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), include certain items that may not be indicative of its ongoing core

 

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operations. The table below identifies such items and reconciles net earnings attributable to shareholders to core net operating earnings, a non-GAAP financial measure. AFG believes that its core net operating earnings provides management, financial analysts, ratings agencies and investors with an understanding of the results from the ongoing operations of the Company by excluding the impact of net realized gains and losses, annuity non-core earnings and losses, and special items that are not necessarily indicative of operating trends. AFG’s management uses core net operating earnings to evaluate financial performance against historical results because it believes this provides a more comparable measure of its continuing business. Core net operating earnings is also used by AFG’s management as a basis for strategic planning and forecasting.

 

Dollars in millions, except per share amounts    Three months ended
September 30,
     Nine months ended
September 30,
 
     2019      2018      2019      2018  

Components of net earnings attributable to shareholders:

           

Core operating earnings before income taxes

   $ 251      $ 237      $ 716      $ 733  

Pretax non-core items:

           

Realized gains (losses) on securities

     (18      34        222        (28

Annuity non-core earnings (losses)

     (27      —          (60      —    

Special A&E charges(b)

     (29      (27      (29      (27
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Earnings before income taxes

     177        244        849        678  

Provision (benefit) for income taxes:

           

Core operating earnings

     50        40        143        138  

Non-core items

     (16      1        28        (12
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total provision (benefit) for income taxes

     34        41        171        126  
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Net earnings, including noncontrolling interests

     143        203        678        552  

Less net earnings (losses) attributable to noncontrolling interests:

           

Core operating earnings (losses)

     (4      (1      (8      (7

Non-core items

     —          —          —          —    
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total net earnings (losses) attributable to noncontrolling interests

     (4      (1      (8      (7
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Net earnings attributable to shareholders

   $ 147      $ 204      $ 686      $ 559  
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Net earnings:

           

Core net operating earnings(a)

   $ 205      $ 198      $ 581      $ 602  

Realized gains (losses) on securities

     (14      27        176        (22

Annuity non-core earnings (losses)

     (21      —          (48      —    

Special A&E charges(b)

     (23      (21      (23      (21
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Net earnings attributable to shareholders

   $ 147      $ 204      $ 686      $ 559  
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Components of Earnings Per Share:

           

Core net operating earnings(a)

   $ 2.25      $ 2.19      $ 6.39      $ 6.65  

Non-core Items:

           

Realized gains (losses) on securities

     (0.15      0.31        1.93        (0.24

Annuity non-core earnings (losses)

     (0.23      —          (0.52      —    

Special A&E charges(b)

     (0.25      (0.24      (0.25      (0.24
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Diluted Earnings Per Share

   $ 1.62      $ 2.26      $ 7.55      $ 6.17  
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Footnotes (a) and (b) are contained in the accompanying Notes to Financial Schedules at the end of this release.

S. Craig Lindner and Carl H. Lindner III, AFG’s Co-Chief Executive Officers, issued this statement: “Our Specialty P&C and Annuity Segments both produced strong operating profitability and investment results during the quarter, which helped us to achieve an annualized core operating return on equity in excess of 15%.

“For the nine months ended September 30, 2019, AFG’s annualized growth in adjusted book value per share plus dividends was 18.2%. AFG had approximately $865 million of excess capital (including parent company cash of approximately $270 million) at September 30, 2019. Where appropriate, our excess capital will be deployed into AFG’s core businesses as we identify potential for healthy, profitable organic growth, and opportunities to expand our specialty niche businesses through acquisitions and start-ups that meet our target return thresholds. In addition, returning capital to shareholders in the form of regular and special cash dividends and opportunistic share repurchases is also an important and effective component of our capital management strategy. We will evaluate our excess capital position again before the end of

 

Page 2


the year, and note that the special cash dividend paid in May does not preclude our consideration of additional special dividends and opportunistic share repurchases.

“We now expect AFG’s core net operating earnings in 2019 to be in the range of $8.50 to $8.70 per share, narrowed from the range of $8.40 to $8.80 announced previously. This revised range gives effect to our results of operations through the first nine months of 2019, as well as our expectations that we will not recognize any profits from the 2019 crop year in the fourth quarter of 2019. Our core earnings per share guidance excludes non-core items such as realized gains and losses, annuity non-core earnings and other significant items that are not able to be estimated with reasonable precision, or that may not be indicative of ongoing operations.”

Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance Operations

Pretax core operating earnings in AFG’s P&C Insurance Segment were $194 million in the third quarter of 2019, compared to $158 million in the prior year period, an increase of $36 million, or 23%. Higher P&C underwriting profit and higher P&C net investment income, primarily the result of higher earnings on limited partnerships and similar investments, both contributed to the year-over-year improvement. The strong performance of these investments should not necessarily be expected to repeat in future periods.

The Specialty P&C insurance operations generated an underwriting profit of $88 million in the 2019 third quarter, compared to $55 million in the third quarter of 2018. Higher year-over-year underwriting profits in our Property and Transportation and Specialty Financial Groups were partially offset by lower underwriting profit in our Specialty Casualty Group. The third quarter 2019 combined ratio of 94.0% was 1.7 points lower than the 95.7% reported in the comparable prior year period, and includes 1.6 points in catastrophe losses. By comparison, catastrophe losses in the third quarter of 2018 added 2.6 points. Third quarter 2019 results include 3.1 points of favorable prior year reserve development, compared to 3.7 points in the comparable prior year period.

Gross written and net written premiums were up 12% and 11%, respectively, for the third quarter of 2019, when compared to the same period in 2018. As previously reported, delayed planting of spring crops resulted in late acreage reporting in our crop operations, which increased overall third quarter premiums. Excluding the impact of the timing of the crop premiums, gross and net written premiums each increased 9%. Average renewal pricing across the entire P&C Group was up in excess of 3% for the quarter. Excluding our workers’ compensation business, renewal pricing was up approximately 6% in the third quarter, reflecting a continued improvement from renewal rate increases achieved during the first half of 2019. Pricing in our Specialty P&C group overall is the highest we have achieved in over five years, meeting or exceeding our expectations in each of our Specialty P&C sub-segments.

Further details about AFG’s Specialty P&C operations may be found in the accompanying schedules.

The Property and Transportation Group reported 2019 third quarter underwriting profit of $38 million, compared to break-even underwriting results in the third quarter of 2018. Although nearly all businesses in this group reported higher year-over-year underwriting profits, the increase was driven by higher underwriting profit in our transportation and property & inland marine businesses. These increases were partially offset by lower underwriting profitability in our crop business. Overall results include 2.8 points of favorable prior year reserve development in the third quarter of 2019, compared to 0.8 points in the year-ago period. Catastrophe losses for this group were $8 million in the third quarter of 2019, compared to $13 million in the comparable prior year period.

 

Page 3


Gross and net written premiums for the third quarter of 2019 were 17% and 18% higher, respectively, than the comparable 2018 period. The increase was largely the result of higher year-over-year premiums in our transportation businesses and the timing of recording of crop premiums as a result of delayed acreage reporting from insureds due to excess moisture and late planting of corn and soybean crops. Gross and net written premiums excluding crop grew by 13% and 14%, respectively, year-over-year. Overall renewal rates in this group increased 4% on average for the third quarter of 2019, with continued strong renewal rate momentum.

The Specialty Casualty Group reported a 2019 third quarter underwriting profit of $23 million, compared to $49 million in the third quarter of 2018. Higher profitability in our workers’ compensation and social services businesses was more than offset by higher underwriting losses in Neon and adverse prior year reserve development in our excess and surplus businesses. Underwriting profitability in our workers’ compensation business continues to be very strong. Catastrophe losses for this group were $10 million and $12 million in the third quarters of 2019 and 2018.

Gross and net written premiums increased 8% and 7%, respectively, for the third quarter of 2019 when compared to the same prior year period. The addition of premiums from ABA Insurance services, which was acquired in the fourth quarter of 2018, along with growth in our excess and surplus lines and excess liability businesses, primarily the result of new business opportunities, rate increases and higher retentions on renewal business, were the primary drivers of the higher premiums. Lower premiums in Neon, primarily due to foreign currency translation, and in our workers’ compensation businesses, due to rate decreases, partially offset this growth. Excluding workers’ compensation, year-over-year growth in third quarter gross and net written premiums was 12% and 13%, respectively. Renewal pricing for this group was up 4% in the third quarter. Excluding rate decreases in our workers’ compensation businesses, renewal rates in this group were up approximately 9%. With the exception of workers’ compensation, renewal rates in this group are the highest we have seen in more than five years.

The Specialty Financial Group reported an underwriting profit of $26 million in the third quarter of 2019, compared to $9 million in the third quarter of 2018. Higher underwriting profit in our financial institutions business was the primary driver of the increase. Catastrophe losses for this group were $3 million and $13 million in the third quarters of 2019 and 2018, respectively. All of the businesses in this group continued to achieve excellent underwriting margins.

Gross and net written premiums increased by 6% and 9%, respectively, in the 2019 third quarter when compared to the same 2018 period, primarily as a result of higher premiums in our fidelity and crime and equipment leasing businesses. Renewal pricing in this group was flat for the quarter.

Carl Lindner III stated, “I’m excited to see continued momentum in our renewal pricing, with double digit rate increases in several of our Specialty Casualty businesses during the quarter. We now expect growth in net written premiums to be in the range of 4% to 7%, up from our previous guidance of 2% to 5%, when compared to the $5.0 billion reported in 2018. Our Specialty P&C businesses produced excellent underwriting margins and strong growth during the quarter; based on results through the first nine months of the year and our expectations of no crop earnings in the fourth quarter, we have narrowed our 2019 calendar year combined ratio guidance to a range of 93% to 94% from our previous range of 92% to 94%.

Further details about AFG’s Specialty P&C operations may be found in the accompanying schedules and in our Quarterly Investor Supplement, which is posted on our website.

 

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Annuity Segment

Annuity Operating Earnings – For all periods presented, the table below reflects core operating earnings under AFG’s new definition. For periods prior to the second quarter of 2019, “new” core operating earnings are reconciled to previously reported operating results.

 

In millions    Three months ended
September 30,
    Nine months ended
September 30,
 
     2019     2018     2019     2018  

Pretax Annuity Core Operating Earnings:

        

Pretax earnings before certain items below

   $ 150     $ 139     $ 441     $ 418  

Investments marked to market through core operating earnings, net of DAC

     25       26       80       88  

Amortization of option costs, net of DAC

     (75     (65     (216     (183
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Pretax Annuity core operating earnings – new method

     100       100       305       323  

Other amounts previously reported as operating, net *

     n/a       17       (11     18  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Pretax Annuity core operating earnings, as reported

   $ 100     $ 117     $ 294     $ 341  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Year over year growth in quarterly average invested assets

     11     10     11     10

Yield on investments marked to market through core operating earnings

     9.5     11.7     10.5     14.3

 

*

“Other” primarily reflects (i) the impact of fair value accounting, (ii) the impact of changes in the stock market on the liability for guaranteed benefits and deferred acquisition costs (DAC), and (iii) unlocking.

Pretax earnings before certain items increased primarily as a result of the growth in AFG’s annuity business. Earnings from investments marked to market through core operating earnings vary from quarter to quarter based on the reported results of the underlying investments. Higher amortization of option costs reflects growth in AFG’s annuity business, as well as higher costs of options.

2019 Annuity Core Operating Earnings Guidance – Taking into account the new definition of Annuity core operating earnings beginning in the second quarter of 2019, and based on the $294 million of operating earnings reported by the Annuity Segment in the first nine months of 2019, AFG now expects its full year 2019 pretax Annuity core operating earnings to be in the range of $380 million to $400 million. This compares to the most recent guidance of $375 million to $405 million.

This updated guidance reflects: (i) an assumed annualized return of 8% in the fourth quarter on investments required to be marked to market through operating earnings, in contrast to the 10.5% earned on an annualized basis in the first nine months of 2019 and (ii) the impact of lower interest rates – in particular, the impact of lower short term rates, which will have a negative impact on the Annuity Segment’s approximately $3 billion net investment in floating rate securities.

Annuity Premiums – AFG’s Annuity Segment reported statutory premiums of $1.08 billion in the third quarter of 2019, compared to $1.38 billion in the third quarter of 2018, a decrease of 22%. Higher traditional fixed annuity premiums were more than offset by lower fixed-indexed annuity (FIA) premiums.

In response to the continued drop in market interest rates in 2019, AFG has implemented numerous crediting rate decreases in order to maintain appropriate returns on its annuity sales. Based on the results to date, AFG believes that its 2019 Annuity premiums will be down 9% to 10% from its record $5.4 billion of premiums in 2018.

Craig Lindner stated, “I am pleased with our results in this difficult interest rate environment. Our third quarter Annuity Segment results reflect a core operating return on equity in excess of 12%. We continue to believe that our consumer-centric model provides both value to policyholders and protection to AFG.”

 

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Annuity Non-Core Earnings (Loss) – In the third quarter of 2019, AFG reported an after-tax Annuity non-core loss of $21 million or ($0.23) per share; this amount reflects primarily the negative impact that the decrease in market interest rates in the third quarter of 2019 had on fair value accounting for FIAs.

Due to the significant decrease in both long-term and short-term interest rates throughout 2019, AFG performed a detailed review (unlocking) of the actuarial assumptions underlying its annuity operations in the third quarter of 2019; this review resulted in a net after-tax unlocking charge of $1 million ($0.01 per share), which is also included in the Annuity Non-Core Earnings (Loss) amount discussed above. Lower interest rates resulted in (i) a negative impact related to lower expected future investment income, (ii) a negative impact related to higher assumed persistency on certain blocks of business, and (iii) a positive impact related to lower expected costs for FIA renewal options, including anticipated renewal rate actions.

AFG monitors the major actuarial assumptions underlying its annuity operations throughout the year. Historically, the Company conducted detailed reviews (“unlocking”) of its assumptions in the fourth quarter of each year. Beginning with the third quarter of 2019, AFG will conduct this review in the third quarter of each year.

More information about premiums and the results of operations for our Annuity Segment may be found in AFG’s Quarterly Investor Supplement.

A&E Reserves

During the third quarter of 2019, AFG completed an in-depth comprehensive review of its asbestos and environmental exposures relating to the run-off operations of its P&C Group and its exposures related to former railroad and manufacturing operations and sites. This year’s review resulted in non-core after-tax special charges of $23 million ($29 million pretax) to increase AFG’s A&E reserves.

The P&C Group’s asbestos reserves were increased by $3 million (net of reinsurance) and its environmental reserves were increased by $15 million (net of reinsurance). At September 30, 2019, the P&C Group’s insurance reserves include A&E reserves of $389 million, net of reinsurance recoverables. At September 30, 2019, the property and casualty insurance segment’s three-year survival ratios were 19.9 times paid losses for asbestos reserves, 12.1 times paid losses for environmental reserves and 15.6 times paid losses for total A&E reserves. These ratios compare favorably with industry data compiled by A.M. Best as of December 31, 2018, which indicate that industry survival ratios were 7.0 for asbestos, 8.3 for environmental, and 7.3 for total A&E reserves.

In addition, the 2019 review encompassed reserves for asbestos and environmental exposures of our former railroad and manufacturing operations. As a result of the review, AFG increased its reserve for environmental exposures by $8 million, due primarily to relatively small movements across several sites that primarily reflect changes in the scope and costs of investigation; AFG also increased its reserve for asbestos and toxic substance exposures arising out of these operations by $3 million.

Investments

AFG recorded third quarter 2019 net realized losses on securities of $14 million ($0.15 per share) after tax and after deferred acquisition costs (DAC), which included $20 million ($0.22 per share) in after-tax, after-DAC net losses to adjust equity securities that the Company continued to own, to fair value. By comparison, AFG recorded net realized gains on securities of $27 million ($0.31 per share) in the comparable 2018 period.

 

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Unrealized gains on fixed maturities were $920 million after tax and after DAC at September 30, 2019, an increase of $837 million since year end. Our portfolio continues to be high quality, with 91% of our fixed maturity portfolio rated investment grade and 98% with a National Association of Insurance Commissioners’ designation of NAIC 1or 2, its highest two categories.

For the nine months ended September 30, 2019, P&C net investment income was approximately 9% higher than the comparable 2018 period.

More information about the components of our investment portfolio may be found in our Quarterly Investor Supplement, which is posted on our website.

About American Financial Group, Inc.

American Financial Group is an insurance holding company, based in Cincinnati, Ohio with assets over $65 billion. Through the operations of Great American Insurance Group, AFG is engaged primarily in property and casualty insurance, focusing on specialized commercial products for businesses, and in the sale of traditional fixed, fixed-indexed and variable-indexed annuities in the retail, financial institutions, broker-dealer and registered investment advisor markets. Great American Insurance Group’s roots go back to 1872 with the founding of its flagship company, Great American Insurance Company.

Forward Looking Statements

This press release contains certain statements that may be deemed to be “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All statements in this press release not dealing with historical results are forward-looking and are based on estimates, assumptions and projections. Examples of such forward-looking statements include statements relating to: the Company’s expectations concerning market and other conditions and their effect on future premiums, revenues, earnings, investment activities and the amount and timing of share repurchases; recoverability of asset values; expected losses and the adequacy of reserves for asbestos, environmental pollution and mass tort claims; rate changes; and improved loss experience.

Actual results and/or financial condition could differ materially from those contained in or implied by such forward-looking statements for a variety of reasons including, but not limited to: changes in financial, political and economic conditions, including changes in interest and inflation rates, currency fluctuations and extended economic recessions or expansions in the U.S. and/or abroad; performance of securities markets, including the cost of equity index options; new legislation or declines in credit quality or credit ratings that could have a material impact on the valuation of securities in AFG’s investment portfolio; the availability of capital; changes in insurance law or regulation, including changes in statutory accounting rules and changes in regulation of the Lloyd’s market, including modifications to the establishment of capital requirements for and approval of business plans for syndicate participation; changes in the legal environment affecting AFG or its customers; tax law and accounting changes, including the impact of recent changes in U.S. corporate tax law; levels of natural catastrophes and severe weather, terrorist activities (including any nuclear, biological, chemical or radiological events), incidents of war or losses resulting from civil unrest and other major losses; disruption caused by cyber-attacks or other technology breaches or failures by AFG or its business partners and service providers, which could negatively impact AFG’s business and/or expose AFG to litigation; development of insurance loss reserves and establishment of other reserves, particularly with respect to amounts associated with asbestos and environmental claims; availability of reinsurance and ability of reinsurers to pay their obligations; trends in

 

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persistency and mortality; competitive pressures; the ability to obtain adequate rates and policy terms; changes in AFG’s credit ratings or the financial strength ratings assigned by major ratings agencies to AFG’s operating subsidiaries; the impact of the conditions in the international financial markets and the global economy relating to AFG’s international operations; and other factors identified in AFG’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The forward-looking statements herein are made only as of the date of this press release. The Company assumes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements.

Conference Call

The Company will hold a conference call to discuss 2019 third quarter results at 11:30 a.m. (ET) tomorrow, Wednesday, October 30, 2019. Toll-free telephone access will be available by dialing 1-877-459-8719 (international dial-in 424-276-6843). The conference ID for the live call is 1894955. Please dial in five to ten minutes prior to the scheduled start time of the call.

A replay will be available two hours following the completion of the call and will remain available until 11:59 p.m. (ET) on November 6, 2019. To listen to the replay, dial 1-855-859-2056 (international dial-in 404-537-3406) and provide the conference ID 1894955.

The conference call and accompanying webcast slides will also be broadcast live over the Internet. To access the event, click the following link: https://www.afginc.com/news-and-events/event-calendar. Alternatively, you can choose Events from the Investor Relations page at www.AFGinc.com.

An archived webcast will be available immediately after the call via the same link on our website until November 6, 2019 at 11:59 p.m. (ET). An archived audio MP3 file will be available within 24 hours of the call.

Contact:

Diane P. Weidner, IRC

Assistant Vice President – Investor & Media Relations

(513) 369-5713

Websites:

www.AFGinc.com

www.GreatAmericanInsuranceGroup.com

# # #

(Financial summaries follow)

This earnings release and AFG’s Quarterly Investor Supplement are available in the Investor Relations section of AFG’s website: www.AFGinc.com.

AFG19-23

 

Page 8


AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES

SUMMARY OF EARNINGS AND SELECTED BALANCE SHEET DATA

(Dollars in Millions, Except Per Share Data)

 

     Three months ended
September 30,
    Nine months ended
September 30,
 
     2019     2018     2019     2018  

Revenues

        

P&C insurance net earned premiums

   $  1,442     $  1,327     $ 3,815     $ 3,595  

Life, accident & health net earned premiums

     6       6       17       18  

Net investment income

     588       527       1,710       1,552  

Realized gains (losses) on securities

     (18     34       222       (28

Income (loss) of managed investment entities:

        

Investment income

     67       65       206       187  

Gain (loss) on change in fair value of assets/liabilities

     (14     (5     (16     (10

Other income

     52       54       153       146  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total revenues

     2,123       2,008       6,107       5,460  

Costs and expenses

        

P&C insurance losses & expenses

     1,394       1,296       3,634       3,411  

Annuity, life, accident & health benefits & expenses

     379       303       1,107       899  

Interest charges on borrowed money

     17       15       50       46  

Expenses of managed investment entities

     54       52       168       154  

Other expenses

     102       98       299       272  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total costs and expenses

     1,946       1,764       5,258       4,782  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Earnings before income taxes

     177       244       849       678  

Provision for income taxes

     34       41       171       126  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net earnings including noncontrolling interests

     143       203       678       552  

Less: Net earnings (losses) attributable to noncontrolling interests

     (4     (1     (8     (7
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net earnings attributable to shareholders

   $ 147     $ 204     $ 686     $ 559  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Diluted Earnings per Common Share

   $ 1.62     $ 2.26     $ 7.55     $ 6.17  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Average number of diluted shares

     91.1       90.7       90.9       90.6  
      September 30,     December 31,  

Selected Balance Sheet Data:

    2019     2018  

Total cash and investments

 

  $  54,207     $  48,498  

Long-term debt

 

  $ 1,423     $ 1,302  

Shareholders’ equity(c)

 

  $ 6,321     $ 4,970  

Shareholders’ equity (excluding unrealized gains/losses related to fixed maturities)(c)

 

  $ 5,376     $ 4,898  

Book value per share

 

  $ 70.14     $ 55.66  

Book value per share (excluding unrealized gains/losses related to fixed maturities)

 

  $ 59.65     $ 54.86  

Common Shares Outstanding

 

    90.1       89.3  

Footnote (c) is contained in the accompanying Notes to Financial Schedules at the end of this release.

 

Page 9


AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.

SPECIALTY P&C OPERATIONS

(Dollars in Millions)

 

     Three months ended
September 30,
    Pct.
Change
    Nine months ended
September 30,
    Pct.
Change
 
     2019     2018           2019     2018        

Gross written premiums

   $  2,351     $  2,104       12   $  5,550     $  5,227       6
  

 

 

   

 

 

     

 

 

   

 

 

   

Net written premiums

   $ 1,618     $ 1,456       11   $ 4,029     $ 3,815       6
  

 

 

   

 

 

     

 

 

   

 

 

   

Ratios (GAAP):

            

Loss & LAE ratio

     63.1     64.3       60.9     60.8  

Underwriting expense ratio

     30.9     31.4       32.9     33.0  
  

 

 

   

 

 

     

 

 

   

 

 

   

Specialty Combined Ratio

     94.0     95.7       93.8     93.8  
  

 

 

   

 

 

     

 

 

   

 

 

   

Combined Ratio – P&C Segment

     96.3     97.2       94.7     94.4  
  

 

 

   

 

 

     

 

 

   

 

 

   

Supplemental Information:(d)

            

Gross Written Premiums:

            

Property & Transportation

   $ 1,113     $ 953       17   $ 2,131     $ 1,994       7

Specialty Casualty

     1,031       956       8     2,839       2,667       6

Specialty Financial

     207       195       6     580       566       2
  

 

 

   

 

 

     

 

 

   

 

 

   
   $ 2,351     $ 2,104       12   $ 5,550     $ 5,227       6
  

 

 

   

 

 

     

 

 

   

 

 

   

Net Written Premiums:

            

Property & Transportation

   $ 661     $ 560       18   $ 1,427     $ 1,306       9

Specialty Casualty

     744       695       7     2,032       1,928       5

Specialty Financial

     167       153       9     461       460       —    

Other

     46       48       (4 %)      109       121       (10 %) 
  

 

 

   

 

 

     

 

 

   

 

 

   
   $ 1,618     $ 1,456       11   $ 4,029     $ 3,815       6
  

 

 

   

 

 

     

 

 

   

 

 

   

Combined Ratio (GAAP):

            

Property & Transportation

     93.5     100.0       93.8     95.5  

Specialty Casualty

     96.5     92.1       94.5     93.3  

Specialty Financial

     83.7     94.4       86.8     90.0  

Aggregate Specialty Group

     94.0     95.7       93.8     93.8  

 

     Three months ended
September 30,
    Nine months ended
September 30,
 
     2019     2018     2019     2018  

Reserve Development (Favorable)/Adverse:

        

Property & Transportation

   $ (17     $ (4   $ (49   $ (43

Specialty Casualty

     (19     (37     (63     (87

Specialty Financial

     (9     (8     (24     (19

Other Specialty

     (1     —         2       (2
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Specialty Group

     (46     (49     (134     (151

Special A&E Reserve Charge – P&C Run-off

     18       18       18       18  

Other

     16       —         18       2  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total Reserve Development

   $ (12   $ (31   $ (98   $ (131
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Points on Combined Ratio:

        

Property & Transportation

     (2.8     (0.8     (3.7     (3.5

Specialty Casualty

     (2.9     (6.0     (3.2     (4.8

Specialty Financial

     (5.5     (5.1     (5.3     (4.1

Aggregate Specialty Group

     (3.1     (3.7     (3.5     (4.3

Total P&C Segment

     (0.8     (2.2     (2.6     (3.7

Footnote (d) is contained in the accompanying Notes to Financial Schedules at the end of this release.

 

Page 10


AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.

ANNUITY SEGMENT

(Dollars in Millions)

Components of Statutory Premiums

 

     Three months ended
September 30,
     Pct.
Change
    Nine months ended
September 30,
     Pct.
Change
 
     2019      2018            2019      2018         

Annuity Premiums:

                

Financial Institutions

   $ 627      $ 574        9   $  2,137      $  1,671        28

Retail

     228        371        (39 %)      868        1,086        (20 %) 

Broker-Dealer

     143        325        (56 %)      573        946        (39 %) 

Pension Risk Transfer

     39        56        nm       99        57        nm  

Education Market

     35        46        nm       128        146        nm  

Variable Annuities

     5        6        nm       16        19        nm  
  

 

 

    

 

 

      

 

 

    

 

 

    

Total Annuity Premiums

   $ 1,077      $ 1,378        (22 %)    $ 3,821      $ 3,925        (3 %) 
  

 

 

    

 

 

      

 

 

    

 

 

    

Components of Annuity Earnings Before Income Taxes

 

     Three months ended
September 30,
     Pct.
Change
    Nine months ended
September 30,
     Pct.
Change
 
     2019      2018            2019      2018         

Revenues:

                

Net investment income

   $  448      $ 413        8   $  1,334      $  1,219        9

Other income

     28        27        4     82        80        3
  

 

 

    

 

 

      

 

 

    

 

 

    

Total revenues

     476        440        8     1,416        1,299        9

Costs and Expenses:

                

Annuity benefits

     250        222        13     900        664        36

Acquisition expenses

     118        69        71     177        199        (11 %) 

Other expenses

     35        32        9     105        95        11
  

 

 

    

 

 

      

 

 

    

 

 

    

Total costs and expenses

     403        323        25     1,182        958        23
  

 

 

    

 

 

      

 

 

    

 

 

    

Annuity earnings before income taxes

   $ 73      $  117        (38 %)      234      $ 341        (31 %) 
  

 

 

    

 

 

      

 

 

    

 

 

    

Supplemental Annuity Information

 

     Three months ended
September 30,
    Nine months ended
September 30,
 
     2019     2018     2019     2018  

Core net interest spread on fixed annuities – new method

     1.97     2.08     2.02     2.22

Core net spread earned on fixed annuities – new method

     1.06     1.16     1.08     1.28

Further details may be found in our Quarterly Investor Supplement, which is posted on our website.

 

Page 11


AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.

Notes to Financial Schedules

 

a)

Components of core net operating earnings (dollars in millions):

 

     Three months ended
September 30,
     Nine months ended
September 30,
 
     2019      2018      2019      2018  

Core Operating Earnings before Income Taxes:

           

P&C insurance segment

   $ 194      $ 158      $ 554      $ 526  

Annuity segment, new method

     100        100        305        323  

Annuity results previously reported as operating earnings

     —          17        (11      18  

Interest and other corporate expenses*

     (39      (37      (124      (127
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Core operating earnings before income taxes

     255        238        724        740  

Related income taxes

     50        40        143        138  
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Core net operating earnings

   $ 205      $ 198      $ 581      $ 602  
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

 

*

Other Corporate Expenses includes income and expenses associated with AFG‘s run-off businesses.

 

b)

Reflects the following effects of special A&E charges during the third quarter and first nine months of 2019 and 2018 (dollars in millions, except per share amounts):

 

     Pretax      After-tax      EPS  
     2019      2018      2019      2018      2019      2018  

A&E Charges:

                 

P&C insurance run-off operations

                 

Asbestos

   $ 3      $ 6      $ 2      $ 5        

Environmental

     15        12        12        9        
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 
   $ 18      $ 18      $ 14      $ 14      $ 0.15      $ 0.16  
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Former railroad & manufacturing operations

                 

Asbestos

   $ 3      $ —        $ 2      $ —          

Environmental

     8        9        7        7        
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 
   $ 11      $ 9      $ 9      $ 7      $ 0.10      $ 0.08  
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total A&E

   $         29      $         27      $         23      $         21      $      0.25      $      0.24  
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

 

c)

Shareholders’ Equity at September 30, 2019 includes $920 million ($10.21 per share) in unrealized after-tax gains on fixed maturities and $25 million ($0.28 per share) in unrealized after-tax gains on fixed maturity-related cash flow hedges. Shareholders’ Equity at December 31, 2018 includes $83 million ($0.93 per share) in unrealized after-tax gains on fixed maturities and $11 million ($0.13 per share) in unrealized after-tax losses on fixed maturity-related cash flow hedges.

 

d)

Supplemental Notes:

 

   

Property & Transportation includes primarily physical damage and liability coverage for buses and trucks, inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related products and other commercial property coverages.

 

   

Specialty Casualty includes primarily excess and surplus, general liability, executive liability, professional liability, umbrella and excess liability, specialty coverages in targeted markets, customized programs for small to mid-sized businesses and workers’ compensation insurance.

 

   

Specialty Financial includes risk management insurance programs for lending and leasing institutions (including equipment leasing and collateral and lender-placed mortgage property insurance), surety and fidelity products and trade credit insurance.

 

   

Other includes an internal reinsurance facility.

 

Page 12

EX-99.2

Exhibit 99.2

 

LOGO   

American Financial Group, Inc.

 

Investor Supplement - Third Quarter 2019

 

October 29, 2019

 

American Financial Group, Inc.

Corporate Headquarters

Great American Insurance Group Tower

301 E Fourth Street

Cincinnati, OH 45202

513 579 6739


American Financial Group, Inc.

Table of Contents - Investor Supplement - Third Quarter 2019

   LOGO

 

Section

   Page  

Table of Contents - Investor Supplement - Third Quarter 2019

     2  

Financial Highlights

     3  

Summary of Earnings

     4  

Earnings Per Share Summary

     5  

Property and Casualty Insurance Segment

  

Property and Casualty Insurance - Summary Underwriting Results (GAAP)

     6  

Specialty - Underwriting Results (GAAP)

     7  

Property and Transportation - Underwriting Results (GAAP)

     8  

Specialty Casualty - Underwriting Results (GAAP)

     9  

Specialty Financial - Underwriting Results (GAAP)

     10  

Other Specialty - Underwriting Results (GAAP)

     11  

Annuity Segment

  

Annuity Earnings

     12  

Detail of Annuity Benefits Expense

     13  

Core Net Spread on Fixed Annuities - New Method

     14  

Statutory Annuity Premiums

     15  

Fixed Annuity Benefits Accumulated (GAAP)

     16  

Guaranteed Minimum Interest Rate Analysis

     17  

Annuity Non-Core Earnings (Losses)

     18  

Reconciliation from Core to GAAP Annuity Pretax Earnings

     19  

Consolidated Balance Sheet / Book Value / Debt

  

Consolidated Balance Sheet

     20  

Book Value Per Share and Price / Book Summary

     21  

Capitalization

     22  

Additional Supplemental Information

     23  

Consolidated Investment Supplement

  

Total Cash and Investments

     24  

Net Investment Income

     25  

Significant Investments Marked-to-Market Through Investment Income and Investments Accounted For Using the Equity Method

     26  

Fixed Maturities - By Security Type - AFG Consolidated

     27  

Fixed Maturities - By Security Type Portfolio

     28  

Fixed Maturities - Credit Rating

     29  

Mortgage-Backed Securities - AFG Consolidated

     30  

Mortgage-Backed Securities Portfolio

     31  

Mortgage-Backed Securities - Credit Rating

     32  

Appendix

  

A. Fixed Maturities - Credit Rating by Type

     33  

 

Page 2


American Financial Group, Inc.

Financial Highlights

(in millions, except per share information)

   LOGO

 

     Three Months Ended     Nine Months Ended  
     9/30/19     6/30/19     3/31/19     12/31/18     9/30/18     09/30/19     09/30/18  

Highlights

              

Net earnings (loss)

   $ 147     $ 210     $ 329     $ (29   $ 204     $ 686     $ 559  

Core net operating earnings

     205       192       184       159       198       581       602  

Total assets

     69,067       67,697       66,132       63,456       64,190       69,067       64,190  

Adjusted shareholders’ equity (a)

     5,376       5,260       5,201       4,898       5,103       5,376       5,103  

Property and Casualty net written premiums

     1,618       1,264       1,147       1,208       1,456       4,029       3,815  

Annuity statutory premiums

     1,077       1,349       1,395       1,482       1,378       3,821       3,925  

Per share data

              

Diluted earnings per share

   $ 1.62     $ 2.31     $ 3.63     $ (0.33   $ 2.26     $ 7.55     $ 6.17  

Core net operating earnings per share

     2.25       2.12       2.02       1.75       2.19       6.39       6.65  

Adjusted book value per share (a)

     59.65       58.49       58.02       54.86       57.22       59.65       57.22  

Cash dividends per common share

     0.4000       1.9000       0.4000       1.9000       0.3500       2.7000       2.5500  

Financial ratios

              

Annualized return on equity (b)

     11.0     16.0     25.9     (2.3 %)      16.3     17.6     15.3

Annualized core operating return on equity (b)

     15.3     14.7     14.5     12.6     15.8     14.9     16.5

Property and Casualty combined ratio - Specialty:

              

Loss & LAE ratio

     63.1     60.2     58.9     62.7     64.3     60.9     60.8

Underwriting expense ratio

     30.9     34.8     33.6     29.3     31.4     32.9     33.0
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio - Specialty

     94.0     95.0     92.5     92.0     95.7     93.8     93.8
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net spread on fixed annuities:

              

Net interest spread on fixed annuities - new method

     1.97     2.08     2.01     1.94     2.08     2.02     2.22

Net spread earned on fixed annuities:

              

Core operating - new method

     1.06     1.11     1.08     0.98     1.16     1.08     1.28

Non-core - new method:

              

Previously reported in core operating

     n/a       n/a       (0.12 %)      (0.73 %)      0.19     (0.04 %)      0.07

Currently reported in non-core

     (0.28 %)      (0.35 %)      n/a       n/a       n/a       (0.21 %)      n/a  

 

(a)

Excludes unrealized gains related to fixed maturity investments, a reconciliation to the GAAP measure is on page 21.

(b)

Excludes accumulated other comprehensive income.

 

Page 3


American Financial Group, Inc.

Summary of Earnings

($ in millions)

   LOGO

 

     Three Months Ended     Nine Months Ended  
     9/30/19     6/30/19     3/31/19     12/31/18     09/30/18     09/30/19     09/30/18  

Property and Casualty Insurance

              

Underwriting profit

   $ 72     $ 59     $ 87     $ 101     $ 56     $  218     $  219  

Net investment income

     124       124       104       115       108       352       323  

Other income (expense)

     (2     (8     (6     (2     (6     (16     (16
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Property and Casualty Insurance operating earnings

     194       175       185       214       158       554       526  

Annuity earnings

     100       104       90       20       117       294       341  

Interest expense of parent holding companies

     (17     (17     (16     (16     (15     (50     (46

Other expense

     (22     (25     (27     (13     (22     (74     (81
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Pre-tax core operating earnings

     255       237       232       205       238       724       740  

Income tax expense

     50       45       48       46       40       143       138  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Core net operating earnings

     205       192       184       159       198       581       602  

Non-core items, net of tax:

              

Realized gains (losses) on securities

     (14     45       145       (188     27       176       (22

Annuity non-core earnings (losses), net of taxes

     (21     (27     —         —         —         (48     —    

Special A&E charges:

              

Property and Casualty Insurance run-off operations

     (14     —         —         —         (14     (14     (14

Former Railroad and Manufacturing operations

     (9     —         —         —         (7     (9     (7
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net earnings

   $ 147     $ 210     $ 329     $ (29   $ 204     $ 686     $ 559  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

Page 4


American Financial Group, Inc.

Earnings Per Share Summary

(in millions, except per share information)

   LOGO

 

     Three Months Ended     Nine Months Ended  
     9/30/19     6/30/19     3/31/19      12/31/18     9/30/18     09/30/19     09/30/18  

Core net operating earnings

   $ 205     $ 192     $ 184      $ 159     $ 198     $ 581     $ 602  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net earnings

   $ 147     $ 210     $ 329      $ (29   $ 204     $ 686     $ 559  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Average number of diluted shares - core

     91.137       90.981       90.695        90.668       90.731       90.940       90.610  

Average number of diluted shares - net

     91.137       90.981       90.695        89.278       90.731       90.940       90.610  

Diluted earnings per share:

               

Core net operating earnings per share

   $ 2.25     $ 2.12     $ 2.02      $ 1.75     $ 2.19     $ 6.39     $ 6.65  

Realized gains (losses) on securities

     (0.15     0.48       1.61        (2.08     0.31       1.93       (0.24

Annuity non-core earnings (losses), net of taxes

     (0.23     (0.29     —          —         —         (0.52     —    

Special A&E charges:

               

Property and Casualty Insurance run-off operations

     (0.15     —         —          —         (0.16     (0.15     (0.16

Former Railroad and Manufacturing operations

     (0.10     —         —          —         (0.08     (0.10     (0.08
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Diluted earnings per share

   $ 1.62     $ 2.31     $ 3.63      $ (0.33   $ 2.26     $ 7.55     $ 6.17  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

Page 5


American Financial Group, Inc.

Property and Casualty Insurance - Summary Underwriting Results (GAAP)

($ in millions)

  LOGO

 

     Three Months Ended     Nine Months Ended  
     9/30/19     6/30/19     3/31/19     12/31/18     9/30/18     09/30/19     09/30/18  

Property and Transportation

   $ 38     $ 4     $ 39     $ 64     $ —       $ 81     $ 56  

Specialty Casualty

     23       47       36       22       49       106       119  

Specialty Financial

     26       21       13       20       9       60       46  

Other Specialty

     1       (12     —         (4     (3     (11     (1
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Underwriting profit - Specialty

     88       60       88       102       55       236       220  

Other core charges, included in loss and LAE

     (16     (1     (1     (1     1       (18     (1
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Underwriting profit - Core

     72       59       87       101       56       218       219  

Special A&E charges, included in loss and LAE

     (18     —         —         —         (18     (18     (18
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Underwriting profit (loss) - Property and Casualty Insurance

   $ 54     $ 59     $ 87     $ 101     $ 38     $ 200     $ 201  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Included in results above:

              

Current accident year catastrophe losses:

              

Catastrophe reinstatement premium

   $ —       $ —       $ —       $ (1   $ 3     $ —       $ 3  

Catastrophe loss

     22       12       12       39       35       46       64  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total current accident year catastrophe losses

   $ 22     $ 12     $ 12     $ 38     $ 38     $ 46     $ 67  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Prior year loss reserve development (favorable) / adverse

   $ (12   $ (41   $ (45   $ (61   $ (31   $ (98   $ (131
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio:

              

Property and Transportation

     93.5     99.1     89.0     86.5     100.0     93.8     95.5

Specialty Casualty

     96.5     92.5     94.2     96.5     92.1     94.5     93.3

Specialty Financial

     83.7     85.6     91.4     85.5     94.4     86.8     90.0

Other Specialty

     98.5     135.1     98.9     112.3     103.0     110.2     100.3

Combined ratio - Specialty

     94.0     95.0     92.5     92.0     95.7     93.8     93.8

Other core charges

     1.1     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.0     0.5     0.0

Special A&E charges

     1.2     0.0     0.0     0.0     1.5     0.4     0.6
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio

     96.3     95.1     92.6     92.0     97.2     94.7     94.4
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio excl. catastrophe and prior year development

     95.5     97.5     95.4     93.7     96.8     96.1     96.3
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Loss and LAE components - property and casualty insurance

              

Current accident year, excluding catastrophe loss

     64.6     62.7     61.8     64.4     65.4     63.2     63.3

Prior accident year loss reserve development

     (0.8 %)      (3.3 %)      (3.9 %)      (4.7 %)      (2.2 %)      (2.6 %)      (3.7 %) 

Current accident year catastrophe loss

     1.6     0.9     1.1     3.0     2.6     1.2     1.8
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Loss and LAE ratio

     65.4     60.3     59.0     62.7     65.8     61.8     61.4
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

Page 6


American Financial Group, Inc.

Specialty - Underwriting Results (GAAP)

($ in millions)

  LOGO

 

     Three Months Ended     Nine Months Ended  
     9/30/19     6/30/19     3/31/19     12/31/18     9/30/18     09/30/19     09/30/18  

Gross written premiums

   $ 2,351     $ 1,664     $ 1,535     $ 1,613     $ 2,104     $ 5,550     $ 5,227  

Ceded reinsurance premiums

     (733     (400     (388     (405     (648     (1,521     (1,412
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net written premiums

     1,618       1,264       1,147       1,208       1,456       4,029       3,815  

Change in unearned premiums

     (176     (64     26       62       (129     (214     (220
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

     1,442       1,200       1,173       1,270       1,327       3,815       3,595  

Loss and LAE

     910       722       691       796       855       2,323       2,187  

Underwriting expense

     444       418       394       372       417       1,256       1,188  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Underwriting profit

   $ 88     $ 60     $ 88     $ 102     $ 55     $ 236     $ 220  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Included in results above:

              

Current accident year catastrophe losses:

              

Catastrophe reinstatement premium

   $ —       $ —       $ —       $ (1   $ 3     $ —       $ 3  

Catastrophe loss

     22       12       12       39       35       46       64  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total current accident year catastrophe losses

   $ 22     $ 12     $ 12     $ 38     $ 38     $ 46     $ 67  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Prior year loss reserve development (favorable) / adverse

   $ (46   $ (42   $ (46   $ (61   $ (49   $ (134   $ (151
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio:

              

Loss and LAE ratio

     63.1     60.2     58.9     62.7     64.3     60.9     60.8

Underwriting expense ratio

     30.9     34.8     33.6     29.3     31.4     32.9     33.0
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio

     94.0     95.0     92.5     92.0     95.7     93.8     93.8
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio excl. catastrophe and prior year development

     95.5     97.5     95.4     93.7     96.8     96.1     96.3
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Loss and LAE components:

              

Current accident year, excluding catastrophe loss

     64.6     62.7     61.8     64.4     65.4     63.2     63.3

Prior accident year loss reserve development

     (3.1 %)      (3.4 %)      (4.0 %)      (4.7 %)      (3.7 %)      (3.5 %)      (4.3 %) 

Current accident year catastrophe loss

     1.6     0.9     1.1     3.0     2.6     1.2     1.8
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Loss and LAE ratio

     63.1     60.2     58.9     62.7     64.3     60.9     60.8
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

Page 7


American Financial Group, Inc.

Property and Transportation - Underwriting Results (GAAP)

($ in millions)

   LOGO

 

     Three Months Ended     Nine Months Ended  
     9/30/19     6/30/19     3/31/19     12/31/18     9/30/18     09/30/19     09/30/18  

Gross written premiums

   $ 1,113     $ 579     $ 439     $ 651     $ 953     $ 2,131     $ 1,994  

Ceded reinsurance premiums

     (452     (157     (95     (203     (393     (704     (688
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net written premiums

     661       422       344       448       560       1,427       1,306  

Change in unearned premiums

     (78     (43     17       31       (34     (104     (56
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

     583       379       361       479       526       1,323       1,250  

Loss and LAE

     421       259       225       327       406       905       865  

Underwriting expense

     124       116       97       88       120       337       329  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Underwriting profit

   $ 38     $ 4     $ 39     $ 64     $ —       $ 81     $ 56  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Included in results above:

              

Current accident year catastrophe losses:

              

Catastrophe reinstatement premium

   $ —       $ —       $ —       $ (1   $ 1     $ —       $ 1  

Catastrophe loss

     8       8       9       (1     12       25       27  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total current accident year catastrophe losses

   $ 8     $ 8     $ 9     $ (2   $ 13     $ 25     $ 28  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Prior year loss reserve development (favorable) / adverse

   $ (17   $ (6   $ (26   $ (7   $ (4   $ (49   $ (43
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio:

              

Loss and LAE ratio

     72.1     68.4     62.2     68.2     77.1     68.3     69.2

Underwriting expense ratio

     21.4     30.7     26.8     18.3     22.9     25.5     26.3
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio

     93.5     99.1     89.0     86.5     100.0     93.8     95.5
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio excl. catastrophe and prior year development

     94.9     98.7     93.6     88.2     98.5     95.6     96.8
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Loss and LAE components:

              

Current accident year, excluding catastrophe loss

     73.5     68.0     66.8     69.9     75.6     70.1     70.5

Prior accident year loss reserve development

     (2.8 %)      (1.6 %)      (7.2 %)      (1.5 %)      (0.8 %)      (3.7 %)      (3.5 %) 

Current accident year catastrophe loss

     1.4     2.0     2.6     (0.2 %)      2.3     1.9     2.2
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Loss and LAE ratio

     72.1     68.4     62.2     68.2     77.1     68.3     69.2
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

Page 8


American Financial Group, Inc.

Specialty Casualty - Underwriting Results (GAAP)

($ in millions)

  LOGO

 

     Three Months Ended     Nine Months Ended  
     9/30/19     6/30/19     3/31/19     12/31/18     9/30/18     09/30/19     09/30/18  

Gross written premiums

   $ 1,031     $ 896     $ 912     $ 778     $ 956     $ 2,839     $ 2,667  

Ceded reinsurance premiums

     (287     (234     (286     (197     (261     (807     (739
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net written premiums

     744       662       626       581       695       2,032       1,928  

Change in unearned premiums

     (86     (28     3       32       (79     (111     (138
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

     658       634       629       613       616       1,921       1,790  

Loss and LAE

     416       380       388       389       364       1,184       1,087  

Underwriting expense

     219       207       205       202       203       631       584  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Underwriting profit

   $ 23     $ 47     $ 36     $ 22     $ 49     $ 106     $ 119  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Included in results above:

              

Current accident year catastrophe losses:

              

Catastrophe reinstatement premium

   $ —       $ —       $ —       $ —       $ 1     $ —       $ 1  

Catastrophe loss

     10       1       1       28       11       12       17  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total current accident year catastrophe losses

   $ 10     $ 1     $ 1     $ 28     $ 12     $ 12     $ 18  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Prior year loss reserve development (favorable) / adverse

   $ (19   $ (31   $ (13   $ (52   $ (37   $ (63   $ (87
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio:

              

Loss and LAE ratio

     63.1     60.0     61.6     63.5     59.2     61.6     60.7

Underwriting expense ratio

     33.4     32.5     32.6     33.0     32.9     32.9     32.6
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio

     96.5     92.5     94.2     96.5     92.1     94.5     93.3
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio excl. catastrophe and prior year development

     97.8     97.1     96.3     100.3     96.4     97.1     97.2
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Loss and LAE components:

              

Current accident year, excluding catastrophe loss

     64.4     64.6     63.7     67.3     63.5     64.2     64.6

Prior accident year loss reserve development

     (2.9 %)      (4.7 %)      (2.2 %)      (8.5 %)      (6.0 %)      (3.2 %)      (4.8 %) 

Current accident year catastrophe loss

     1.6     0.1     0.1     4.7     1.7     0.6     0.9
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Loss and LAE ratio

     63.1     60.0     61.6     63.5     59.2     61.6     60.7
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

Page 9


American Financial Group, Inc.

Specialty Financial - Underwriting Results (GAAP)

($ in millions)

  LOGO

 

     Three Months Ended     Nine Months Ended  
     9/30/19     6/30/19     3/31/19     12/31/18     9/30/18     09/30/19     09/30/18  

Gross written premiums

   $ 207     $ 189     $ 184     $ 184     $ 195     $ 580     $ 566  

Ceded reinsurance premiums

     (40     (40     (39     (42     (42     (119     (106
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net written premiums

     167       149       145       142       153       461       460  

Change in unearned premiums

     (6     2       1       (1     (4     (3     (3
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

     161       151       146       141       149       458       457  

Loss and LAE

     47       49       56       51       60       152       174  

Underwriting expense

     88       81       77       70       80       246       237  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Underwriting profit

   $ 26     $ 21     $ 13     $ 20     $ 9     $ 60     $ 46  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Included in results above:

              

Current accident year catastrophe losses:

              

Catastrophe reinstatement premium

   $ —       $ —       $ —       $ —       $ 1     $ —       $ 1  

Catastrophe loss

     3       3       2       10       12       8       18  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total current accident year catastrophe losses

   $ 3     $ 3     $ 2     $ 10     $ 13     $ 8     $ 19  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Prior year loss reserve development (favorable) / adverse

   $ (9   $ (9   $ (6   $ (7   $ (8   $ (24   $ (19
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio:

              

Loss and LAE ratio

     29.7     32.3     38.2     36.4     40.1     33.3     38.0

Underwriting expense ratio

     54.0     53.3     53.2     49.1     54.3     53.5     52.0
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio

     83.7     85.6     91.4     85.5     94.4     86.8     90.0
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio excl. catastrophe and prior year development

     87.2     89.7     94.3     83.6     91.5     90.3     90.2
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Loss and LAE components:

              

Current accident year, excluding catastrophe loss

     33.2     36.4     41.1     34.5     37.2     36.8     38.2

Prior accident year loss reserve development

     (5.5 %)      (5.9 %)      (4.3 %)      (5.2 %)      (5.1 %)      (5.3 %)      (4.1 %) 

Current accident year catastrophe loss

     2.0     1.8     1.4     7.1     8.0     1.8     3.9
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Loss and LAE ratio

     29.7     32.3     38.2     36.4     40.1     33.3     38.0
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

Page 10


American Financial Group, Inc.

Other Specialty - Underwriting Results (GAAP)

($ in millions)

   LOGO

 

     Three Months Ended     Nine Months Ended  
     9/30/19     6/30/19     3/31/19     12/31/18     9/30/18     09/30/19     09/30/18  

Gross written premiums

   $ —       $ —       $ —       $ —       $ —       $ —       $ —    

Ceded reinsurance premiums

     46       31       32       37       48       109       121  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net written premiums

     46       31       32       37       48       109       121  

Change in unearned premiums

     (6     5       5             (12     4       (23
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

     40       36       37       37       36       113       98  

Loss and LAE

     26       34       22       29       25       82       61  

Underwriting expense

     13       14       15       12       14       42       38  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Underwriting profit (loss)

   $ 1     $ (12   $ —       $ (4   $ (3   $ (11   $ (1
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Included in results above:

              

Current accident year catastrophe losses:

              

Catastrophe reinstatement premium

   $ —       $ —       $ —       $ —       $ —       $ —       $ —    

Catastrophe loss

     1       —         —         2       —         1       2  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total current accident year catastrophe losses

   $ 1     $ —       $ —       $ 2     $ —       $ 1     $ 2  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Prior year loss reserve development (favorable) / adverse

   $ (1   $ 4     $ (1   $ 5     $ —       $ 2     $ (2
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio:

              

Loss and LAE ratio

     64.0     96.0     59.7     76.5     65.5     72.7     62.5

Underwriting expense ratio

     34.5     39.1     39.2     35.8     37.5     37.5     37.8
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio

     98.5     135.1     98.9     112.3     103.0     110.2     100.3
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio excl. catastrophe and prior year development

     99.0     123.4     100.8     95.6     103.7     107.3     100.2
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

Page 11


American Financial Group, Inc.

Annuity Earnings

($ in millions)

  LOGO

 

     Three Months Ended      Nine Months Ended  
     9/30/19      6/30/19      3/31/19     12/31/18     9/30/18      09/30/19     09/30/18  

Net investment income

   $ 421      $ 420      $ 406     $ 401     $ 385      $ 1,247     $ 1,123  

Investments marked to market through core operating earnings

     27        31        29       18       28        87       96  

Guaranteed withdrawal benefit fees

     17        17        16       17       16        50       48  

Policy charges and other miscellaneous income

     10        10        11       10       11        31       32  
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total revenues

     475        478        462       446       440        1,415       1,299  

Annuity benefits

     276        272        266       260       248        814       703  

Acquisition expenses

     64        67        60       64       60        191       178  

Other expenses

     35        35        35       36       32        105       95  
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total costs and expenses

     375        374        361       360       340        1,110       976  
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Pretax Annuity core operating earnings - new method

   $ 100      $ 104      $ 101     $ 86     $ 100      $ 305     $ 323  

Other amounts previously reported as core operating, net (a)

     n/a        n/a        (11     (66     17        (11     18  
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Pretax Annuity core operating earnings - as reported

   $ 100      $ 104      $ 90     $ 20     $ 117      $ 294     $ 341  
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

(a)

“Other” primarily reflects (1) the impact of fair value accounting, (2) the impact of changes in the stock market on the liability for guaranteed benefits and DAC, and (3) unlocking.

 

Page 12


American Financial Group, Inc.

Detail of Annuity Benefits Expense

($ in millions)

   LOGO

 

     Three Months Ended     Nine Months Ended  
     9/30/19     6/30/19     3/31/19     12/31/18     9/30/18     09/30/19     09/30/18  

Detail of annuity benefits expense:

              

Cost of funds:

              

Amortization of options (a)

   $ 149     $ 146     $ 141     $ 141     $ 132     $ 436     $ 365  

Traditional fixed annuities

     62       61       59       58       59       182       176  

Fixed component of fixed-indexed annuities

     24       23       22       21       20       69       57  

Immediate annuities

     6       6       6       6       6       18       18  

Pension risk transfer (PRT)

     2       1       1       1       —         4       —    

Federal Home Loan Bank

     7       7       7       6       5       21       14  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total cost of funds - new method

     250       244       236       233       222       730       630  

Guaranteed withdrawal benefit reserve

     21       20       19       19       22       60       55  

Amortization of sales inducements

     3       4       4       5       4       11       14  

Change in expected death and annuitization reserve and other

     2       4       7       3       —         13       4  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total other annuity benefits

     26       28       30       27       26       84       73  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total annuity benefits expense—new method

   $ 276     $ 272     $ 266     $ 260     $ 248     $ 814     $ 703  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

(a) Amortizaton of options, net of DAC and reserve offsets:

              

Amortization of options

   $ 149     $ 146     $ 141     $ 141     $ 132     $ 436     $ 365  

DAC and reserve offsets

     (74     (74     (72     (72     (67     (220     (182
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Amortization of options, net of DAC and reserve offsets

   $ 75     $ 72     $ 69     $ 69     $ 65     $ 216     $ 183  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

Page 13


American Financial Group, Inc.

Core Net Spread on Fixed Annuities - New Method

($ in millions)

   LOGO

 

     Three Months Ended     Nine Months Ended  
     9/30/19     6/30/19     3/31/19     12/31/18     9/30/18     09/30/19     09/30/18  

Average fixed annuity investments (at amortized cost) (a)

   $ 38,650     $ 37,907     $ 36,991     $ 35,993     $ 34,955     $ 37,849     $ 33,964  

Average annuity benefits accumulated

     38,946       38,202       37,078       36,103       35,226       38,075       34,240  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Annuity benefits accumulated in excess of investments (a)

   $ (296   $ (295   $ (87   $ (110   $ (271   $ (226   $ (276
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

As % of average annuity benefits accumulated (except as noted)

              

Net investment income (as % of investments)

     4.34     4.40     4.37     4.44     4.38     4.37     4.38

Investments marked to market through core operating earnings (as % of investments)

     0.28     0.33     0.31     0.20     0.32     0.31     0.38

Cost of funds

     (2.57 %)      (2.55 %)      (2.54 %)      (2.58 %)      (2.52 %)      (2.56 %)      (2.45 %) 

Other annuity benefits, net of guaranteed withdrawal benefit fees

     (0.08 %)      (0.10 %)      (0.13 %)      (0.12 %)      (0.10 %)      (0.10 %)      (0.09 %) 
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Core net interest spread on fixed annuities - new method

     1.97     2.08     2.01     1.94     2.08     2.02     2.22

Policy charges and other miscellaneous income

     0.08     0.08     0.08     0.08     0.09     0.08     0.10

Acquisition expenses

     (0.65 %)      (0.68 %)      (0.65 %)      (0.66 %)      (0.65 %)      (0.66 %)      (0.67 %) 

Other expenses

     (0.34 %)      (0.37 %)      (0.36 %)      (0.38 %)      (0.36 %)      (0.36 %)      (0.37 %) 
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Core net spread earned on fixed annuities - new method

     1.06     1.11     1.08     0.98     1.16     1.08     1.28

Net spread earned on items previously reported as core operating

     n/a       n/a       (0.12 %)      (0.73 %)      0.19     (0.04 %)      0.07
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Core net spread earned on fixed annuities - as reported

     1.06     1.11     0.96     0.25     1.35     1.04     1.35
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Average annuity benefits accumulated

   $ 38,946     $ 38,202     $ 37,078     $ 36,103     $ 35,226     $ 38,075     $ 34,240  

Net spread earned on fixed annuities - core

     1.06     1.11     1.08     0.98     1.16     1.08     1.28
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Earnings on fixed annuity benefits accumulated - core

   $ 103     $ 106     $ 100     $ 88     $ 102     $ 309     $ 330  

Annuity benefits accumulated in excess of investments

   $ (296   $ (295   $ (87   $ (110   $ (271   $ (226   $ (276

Net investment income (as % of investments)

     4.62     4.73     4.68     4.64     4.70     4.68     4.76
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Earnings/(loss) on annuity benefits accumulated in excess of investments

   $ (3   $ (3   $ (1   $ (1   $ (3   $ (7   $ (10

Variable annuity earnings

     —         1       2       (1     1       3       3  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Pretax Annuity core operating earnings - new method

     100       104       101       86       100       305       323  

Other amounts previously reported as core operating, net

     n/a       n/a       (11     (66     17       (11     18  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Pretax Annuity core operating earnings - as reported

   $ 100     $ 104     $ 90     $ 20     $ 117     $ 294     $ 341  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

(a)

Excludes non-investment assets such as deferred acquisition costs, FIA options, accrued investment income and company owned life insurance.

 

Page 14


American Financial Group, Inc.

Statutory Annuity Premiums

($ in millions)

   LOGO

 

     Three Months Ended      Nine Months Ended  
     9/30/19      6/30/19      3/31/19      12/31/18      9/30/18      09/30/19      09/30/18  

Financial institutions single premium annuities - indexed

   $ 325      $ 429      $ 424      $ 455      $ 460      $ 1,178      $ 1,321  

Financial institutions single premium annuities - fixed

     302        313        344        142        114        959        350  

Retail single premium annuities - indexed

     198        274        301        392        354        773        1,026  

Retail single premium annuities - fixed

     30        36        29        27        17        95        60  

Broker dealer single premium annuities - indexed

     134        189        227        335        322        550        936  

Broker dealer single premium annuities - fixed

     9        8        6        4        3        23        10  

Pension risk transfer (PRT)

     39        50        10        75        56        99        57  

Education market - fixed and indexed annuities

     35        44        49        46        46        128        146  
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Subtotal fixed annuity premiums

     1,072        1,343        1,390        1,476        1,372        3,805        3,906  

Variable annuities

     5        6        5        6        6        16        19  
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total annuity premiums

   $ 1,077      $ 1,349      $ 1,395      $ 1,482      $ 1,378      $ 3,821      $ 3,925  
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Summary by Distribution Channel:

                    

Financial institutions

   $ 627      $ 742      $ 768      $ 597      $ 574      $ 2,137      $ 1,671  

Retail

     228        310        330        419        371        868        1,086  

Broker dealer

     143        197        233        339        325        573        946  

Other

     79        100        64        127        108        243        222  
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total annuity premiums

   $ 1,077      $ 1,349      $ 1,395      $ 1,482      $ 1,378      $ 3,821      $ 3,925  
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Summary by Product Type:

                    

Total indexed

   $ 675      $ 917      $ 980      $ 1,211      $ 1,164      $ 2,572      $ 3,369  

Total fixed

     397        426        410        265        208        1,233        537  

Variable

     5        6        5        6        6        16        19  
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total annuity premiums

   $ 1,077      $ 1,349      $ 1,395      $ 1,482      $ 1,378      $ 3,821      $ 3,925  
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

 

Page 15


American Financial Group, Inc.

Fixed Annuity Benefits Accumulated (GAAP)

($ in millions)

   LOGO

 

     Three Months Ended     Nine Months Ended  
     9/30/19     6/30/19     3/31/19     12/31/18     9/30/18     09/30/19     09/30/18  

Beginning fixed annuity reserves

   $ 38,680     $ 37,724     $ 36,431     $ 35,774     $ 34,678     $ 36,431     $ 33,005  

Premiums

     1,072       1,343       1,390       1,476       1,372       3,805       3,906  

Federal Home Loan Bank (“FHLB”) advances (paydowns)

     —         —         —         225       —         —         —    

Surrenders, benefits and other withdrawals

     (808     (862     (761     (796     (707     (2,431     (2,040

Interest and other annuity benefit expenses:

              

Cost of funds

     250       244       236       233       222       730       630  

Embedded derivative mark-to-market

     111       251       462       (490     223       824       242  

Unlockings

     (75     —         —         4       —         (75     55  

Other

     (18     (20     (34     5       (14     (72     (24
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Ending fixed annuity reserves

   $ 39,212     $ 38,680     $ 37,724     $ 36,431     $ 35,774     $ 39,212     $ 35,774  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Reconciliation to annuity benefits accumulated:

              

Ending fixed annuity reserves

   $ 39,212     $ 38,680     $ 37,724     $ 36,431     $ 35,774     $ 39,212     $ 35,774  

Impact of unrealized investment gains on reserves

     269       192       108       10       8       269       8  

Fixed component of variable annuities

     170       172       174       175       176       170       176  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Annuity benefits accumulated per balance sheet

   $ 39,651     $ 39,044     $ 38,006     $ 36,616     $ 35,958     $ 39,651     $ 35,958  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Annualized surrenders and other withdrawals as a % of beginning reserves

     8.4     9.1     8.4     8.9     8.2     8.9     8.2

Rider reserves included in ending fixed annuity reserves above

   $ 611     $ 491     $ 478     $ 472     $ 428     $ 611     $ 428  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Embedded Derivative liability included in ending fixed annuity reserves above

   $ 3,469     $ 3,541     $ 3,247     $ 2,720     $ 3,105     $ 3,469     $ 3,105  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

Page 16


American Financial Group, Inc.

Guaranteed Minimum Interest Rate (“GMIR”) Analysis

($ in millions)

   LOGO

 

     9/30/19     6/30/19     3/31/19     12/31/18     9/30/18     6/30/18  

GMIR

            

1 - 1.99%

     81     80     79     79     78     78

2 - 2.99%

     3     4     4     4     4     4

3 - 3.99%

     7     7     8     8     9     9

4.00% and above

     9     9     9     9     9     9

Annuity Benefits Accumulated

   $ 39,651     $ 39,044     $ 38,006     $ 36,616     $ 35,958     $ 34,886  

Traditional Fixed and FIA Surrender Value (a)

   $ 30,292     $ 29,891     $ 29,163     $ 27,842     $ 27,434     $ 26,502  

Ability to Lower Average Crediting Rates by (a) (b)

     1.20     1.20     1.20     1.19     1.16     1.09

Pretax earnings impact of crediting guaranteed minimums (a)

   $ 363     $ 359     $ 350     $ 331     $ 317     $ 288  

(assumes net DAC impact over time = $0)

            

 

(a)

Excludes Annuities with Guaranteed Withdrawal Benefits, FHLB advances, immediate reserves and certain other reserves.

(b)

Weighted Average Crediting Rate less GMIR

 

Page 17


American Financial Group, Inc.

Annuity Non-Core Earnings (Losses)

($ in millions)

   LOGO

 

     Reported in
Non-Core Earnings
    Reported in Core Earnings
Prior to Second Quarter of 2019
       
     Three Months Ended     Three Months Ended     Nine Months Ended  
     9/30/19     6/30/19     3/31/19     12/31/18     9/30/18     9/30/19     9/30/18  

Annuity Non-Core Earnings (Losses):

              

Stock market impact on:

              

Liability for guaranteed benefits (a)

   $ 2     $ 6     $ 14     $ (22   $ 7     $ 22     $ 8  

DAC and sales inducements (b)

     1       1       5       (8     3       7       4  

Fair Value (FV) accounting

     1       —         14       (27     12       15       16  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Subtotal impact of changes in stock market

     4       7       33       (57     22       44       28  

Impact of changes in interest rates on FV accounting

     (30     (38     (45     (4     (2     (113     37  

Other FIA items

     —         (2     1       (1     (3     (1     (20

Unlockings

     (1     —         —         (4     —         (1     (27
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Annuity Non-Core Earnings (Losses)

   $ (27   $ (33   $ (11   $ (66   $ 17     $ (71   $ 18  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Reported as

     Non-core       Non-core       Core       Core       Core      

Q1 Core =  

Q2/Q3 Non-core =  

($11) 

($60) 

    Core  

Annuity Non-Core Net Spread Earned:

              

Stock market impact on:

              

Liability for guaranteed benefits (a)

     0.02     0.06     0.15     (0.24 %)      0.08     0.08     0.03

DAC and sales inducements (b)

     0.01     0.01     0.06     (0.09 %)      0.03     0.02     0.02

Fair Value (FV) accounting

     0.01     0.00     0.15     (0.30 %)      0.14     0.05     0.06
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Subtotal impact of changes in stock market

     0.04     0.07     0.36     (0.63 %)      0.25     0.15     0.11

Impact of changes in interest rates on FV accounting

     (0.31 %)      (0.40 %)      (0.49 %)      (0.05 %)      (0.03 %)      (0.40 %)      0.15

Other FIA items

     0.00     (0.02 %)      0.01     (0.01 %)      (0.03 %)      0.00     (0.08 %) 

Unlockings

     (0.01 %)      0.00     0.00     (0.04 %)      0.00     0.00     (0.11 %) 
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Non-core net spread earned on fixed annuities

     (0.28 %)      (0.35 %)      (0.12 %)      (0.73 %)      0.19     (0.25 %)      0.07
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Reported as

     Non-core       Non-core       Core       Core       Core      
Q1 Core = (.04%)
Q2/Q3 Non-core = (.21%)
 
 
    Core  

 

(a)

Reflects the impact of changes in the stock market on AFG’s liability for fixed-indexed annuities with guaranteed benefits. Increases in the stock market will generally have a favorable earnings impact; decreases in the stock market will generally have an unfavorable impact.

 

(b)

Reflects the impact of changes in the stock market on the current and projected lifetime profitability of AFG’s annuity business. Increases in the stock market will generally have a favorable earnings impact; decreases in the stock market will generally have an unfavorable impact.

 

S&P 500

     2,977       2,942       2,834       2,507       2,914       2,977       2,914  

Average 5 and 15 year Corp A2 rates

     2.71     2.97     3.41     3.90     3.97     2.71     3.97

Non-core earnings sensitivities:

              

Incremental +/- 1% change in S&P 500

     ~ +/- $2mm to $4mm              

Incremental +/- 10bps change in interest rates

     ~ +/- $9mm to $11mm              

(Assumes parallel shift in rates (primarily Corporate A2 rates))

              

 

Page 18


American Financial Group, Inc.

Reconciliation from Core to GAAP Annuity Pretax Earnings

($ in millions)

   LOGO

 

     Three Months Ended     Nine Months Ended  
     9/30/19     6/30/19     3/31/19     12/31/18     9/30/18     09/30/19     09/30/18  

Annuity Earnings

              

Core annuity operating earnings - as reported (see page 12)

   $ 100     $ 104     $ 90     $ 20     $ 117     $ 294     $ 341  

Annuity non-core earnings (losses)

     (27     (33     —         —         —         (60     —    
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Earnings before income taxes - GAAP

   $ 73     $ 71     $ 90     $ 20     $ 117     $ 234     $ 341  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Policy Charges and Other Miscellaneous Income

              

Policy charges and other miscellaneous income - new method (see page 12)

   $ 10     $ 10     $ 11     $ 10     $ 11     $ 31     $ 32  

Annuity non-core policy charges and other miscellaneous income

     1       —         —         —         —         1       —    
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Policy Charges and Other Miscellaneous Income - GAAP

   $ 11     $ 10     $ 11     $ 10     $ 11     $ 32     $ 32  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Annuity Benefit Expense

              

Annuity benefits expense - new method (see page 13)

   $ 276     $ 272     $ 266     $ 260     $ 248     $ 814     $ 703  

Annuity non-core annuity benefits

     (26     67       45       74       (26     86       (39
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Annuity Benefit Expense - GAAP

   $ 250     $ 339     $ 311     $ 334     $ 222     $ 900     $ 664  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Acquisition Expenses

              

Acquisition expenses - new method (see page 12)

   $ 64     $ 67     $ 60     $ 64     $ 60     $ 191     $ 178  

Annuity non-core acquisition expenses

     54       (34     (34     (8     9       (14     21  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Acquisition Expenses - GAAP

   $ 118     $ 33     $ 26     $ 56     $ 69     $ 177     $ 199  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net Spread on Fixed Annuities

              

Core net spread earned on fixed annuities - as reported (see page 14)

     1.06     1.11     0.96     0.25     1.35     1.04     1.35

Non-core net spread earned on fixed annuities

     (0.28 %)      (0.35 %)      0.00     0.00     0.00     (0.21 %)      0.00
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net Spread on Fixed Annuities

     0.78     0.76     0.96     0.25     1.35     0.83     1.35
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

Page 19


American Financial Group, Inc.

Consolidated Balance Sheet

($ in millions)

   LOGO

 

     9/30/19     6/30/19     3/31/19     12/31/18     9/30/18     6/30/18  

Assets:

            

Total cash and investments

   $ 54,207     $ 52,907     $ 51,040     $ 48,498     $ 47,841     $ 46,779  

Recoverables from reinsurers

     3,261       3,150       3,258       3,349       3,352       3,073  

Prepaid reinsurance premiums

     781       651       636       610       717       645  

Agents’ balances and premiums receivable

     1,403       1,398       1,283       1,234       1,299       1,266  

Deferred policy acquisition costs

     964       1,203       1,447       1,682       1,669       1,582  

Assets of managed investment entities

     4,702       4,781       4,786       4,700       4,998       5,032  

Other receivables

     1,187       999       1,011       1,090       1,633       1,048  

Variable annuity assets (separate accounts)

     601       616       610       557       650       636  

Other assets

     1,754       1,785       1,854       1,529       1,832       1,574  

Goodwill

     207       207       207       207       199       199  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total assets

   $ 69,067     $ 67,697     $ 66,132     $ 63,456     $ 64,190     $ 61,834  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Liabilities and Equity:

            

Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses

   $ 9,847     $ 9,577     $ 9,623     $ 9,741     $ 9,670     $ 9,093  

Unearned premiums

     2,986       2,683       2,605       2,595       2,740       2,539  

Annuity benefits accumulated

     39,651       39,044       38,006       36,616       35,958       34,886  

Life, accident and health reserves

     613       619       632       635       643       647  

Payable to reinsurers

     867       755       730       752       932       721  

Liabilities of managed investment entities

     4,523       4,590       4,593       4,512       4,807       4,840  

Long-term debt

     1,423       1,423       1,423       1,302       1,302       1,301  

Variable annuity liabilities (separate accounts)

     601       616       610       557       650       636  

Other liabilities

     2,235       2,300       2,245       1,774       2,324       2,087  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total liabilities

   $ 62,746     $ 61,607     $ 60,467     $ 58,484     $ 59,026     $ 56,750  

Shareholders’ equity:

            

Common stock

   $ 90     $ 90     $ 90     $ 89     $ 89     $ 89  

Capital surplus

     1,292       1,277       1,256       1,245       1,231       1,220  

Retained earnings

     4,022       3,914       3,875       3,588       3,800       3,628  

Unrealized gains - fixed maturities

     920       812       464       83       93       191  

Unrealized gains (losses) - fixed maturity-related cash flow hedges

     25       18       —         (11     (32     (27

Other comprehensive income, net of tax

     (28     (21     (20     (24     (17     (17
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total shareholders’ equity

     6,321       6,090       5,665       4,970       5,164       5,084  

Noncontrolling interests

     —         —         —         2       —         —    
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total liabilities and equity

   $ 69,067     $ 67,697     $ 66,132     $ 63,456     $ 64,190     $ 61,834  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

Page 20


American Financial Group, Inc.

Book Value Per Share and Price / Book Summary

(in millions, except per share information)

   LOGO

 

     9/30/19     6/30/19     3/31/19     12/31/18     9/30/18     6/30/18  

Shareholders’ equity

   $ 6,321     $ 6,090     $ 5,665     $ 4,970     $ 5,164     $ 5,084  

Unrealized (gains) related to fixed maturities

     (945     (830     (464     (72     (61     (164
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Adjusted shareholders’ equity

     5,376       5,260       5,201       4,898       5,103       4,920  

Goodwill

     (207     (207     (207     (207     (199     (199

Intangibles

     (45     (48     (51     (54     (31     (34
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Tangible adjusted shareholders’ equity

   $ 5,124     $ 5,005     $ 4,943     $ 4,637     $ 4,873     $ 4,687  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Common shares outstanding

     90.127       89.918       89.638       89.292       89.189       89.072  

Book value per share:

            

Book value per share

   $ 70.14     $ 67.72     $ 63.20     $ 55.66     $ 57.90     $ 57.08  

Adjusted (a)

     59.65       58.49       58.02       54.86       57.22       55.24  

Tangible, adjusted (b)

     56.84       55.65       55.14       51.93       54.64       52.63  

Market capitalization

            

AFG’s closing common share price

   $ 107.85     $ 102.47     $ 96.21     $ 90.53     $ 110.97     $ 107.33  

Market capitalization

   $ 9,720     $ 9,214     $ 8,624     $ 8,084     $ 9,897     $ 9,560  

Price / Adjusted book value ratio

     1.81       1.75       1.66       1.65       1.94       1.94  

 

(a)

Excludes unrealized gains related to fixed maturity investments.

(b)

Excludes unrealized gains related to fixed maturity investments, goodwill and intangibles.

 

Page 21


American Financial Group, Inc.

Capitalization

($ in millions)

  LOGO

 

     9/30/19     6/30/19     3/31/19     12/31/18     9/30/18     6/30/18  

AFG senior obligations

   $  1,018     $  1,018     $  1,018     $  1,018     $  1,018     $  1,018  

Borrowings drawn under credit facility

     —         —         —         —         —         —    
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Debt excluding subordinated debt

   $ 1,018     $ 1,018     $ 1,018     $ 1,018     $ 1,018     $ 1,018  

AFG subordinated debentures

     425       425       425       300       300       300  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total principal amount of long-term debt

   $ 1,443     $ 1,443     $ 1,443     $ 1,318     $ 1,318     $ 1,318  

Shareholders’ equity

     6,321       6,090       5,665       4,970       5,164       5,084  

Noncontrolling interests (including redeemable NCI)

     —         —         —         2       —         —    

Less:

            

Unrealized (gains) related to fixed maturity investments

     (945     (830     (464     (72     (61     (164
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total adjusted capital

   $ 6,819     $ 6,703     $ 6,644     $ 6,218     $ 6,421     $ 6,238  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Ratio of debt to total adjusted capital:

            

Including subordinated debt

     21.2     21.5     21.7     21.2     20.5     21.1

Excluding subordinated debt

     14.9     15.2     15.3     16.4     15.9     16.3

 

Page 22


American Financial Group, Inc.

Additional Supplemental Information

($ in millions)

  LOGO

 

     Three Months Ended      Nine Months Ended  
     9/30/19      6/30/19      3/31/19      12/31/18      9/30/18      09/30/19      09/30/18  
Property and Casualty Insurance                     

Paid Losses (GAAP)

   $ 769      $ 666      $ 704      $ 719      $ 614      $ 2,139      $ 1,883  
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

 

     9/30/19     6/30/19     3/31/19     12/31/18     9/30/18     06/30/18  

GAAP Equity (excluding AOCI)

            

Property and Casualty Insurance

   $ 4,094     $ 3,959     $ 3,868     $ 3,638     $ 3,664     $ 3,535  

Annuity

     2,613       2,612       2,553       2,443       2,513       2,397  

Parent and other subsidiaries

     (1,303     (1,290     (1,200     (1,159     (1,057     (995
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

AFG GAAP Equity (excluding AOCI)

   $ 5,404     $ 5,281     $ 5,221     $ 4,922     $ 5,120     $  4,937  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Allowable dividends without regulatory approval

            

Property and Casualty Insurance

   $ 529     $ 529     $ 529     $ 529     $ 563     $ 563  

Annuity and Run-off

     768       768       768       768       263       263  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total

   $ 1,297     $ 1,297     $ 1,297     $ 1,297     $ 826     $ 826  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

Page 23


American Financial Group, Inc.

Total Cash and Investments

($ in millions)

  LOGO

 

     Carrying Value - September 30, 2019  
     Property and             Parent and                   % of  
     Casualty      Annuity and      Other Non-      Consolidate     Total AFG      Investment  
     Insurance      Run-off      Insurance      CLOs     Consolidated      Portfolio  

Total cash and investments:

                

Cash and cash equivalents

   $ 1,622      $ 779      $ 292      $ —       $ 2,693        5

Fixed maturities - Available for sale

     7,893        37,599        11        —         45,503        84

Fixed maturities - Trading

     54        54        —          —         108        0

Equity securities

     1,138        801        65        —         2,004        4

Investments accounted for using the equity method

     625        910        —          —         1,535        3

Mortgage loans

     293        881        —          —         1,174        2

Policy loans

     —          166        —          —         166        0

Equity index call options

     —          750        —          —         750        1

Real estate and other investments

     129        274        49        (178     274        1
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total cash and investments

   $ 11,754      $ 42,214      $ 417      $ (178)     $ 54,207        100
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

 
     Carrying Value - December 31, 2018  
     Property and             Parent and                   % of  
     Casualty      Annuity and      Other Non-      Consolidate     Total AFG      Investment  
     Insurance      Run-off      Insurance      CLOs     Consolidated      Portfolio  

Total cash and investments:

                

Cash and cash equivalents

   $ 1,007      $ 339      $ 169      $ —       $ 1,515        3

Fixed maturities - Available for sale

     7,853        34,132        12        —         41,997        87

Fixed maturities - Trading

     50        55        —          —         105        0

Equity securities

     1,017        744        53        —         1,814        4

Investments accounted for using the equity method

     557        817        —          —         1,374        3

Mortgage loans

     289        779        —          —         1,068        2

Policy loans

     —          174        —          —         174        0

Equity index call options

     —          184        —          —         184        0

Real estate and other investments

     134        276        44        (187     267        1
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total cash and investments

   $ 10,907      $ 37,500      $ 278      $ (187   $ 48,498        100
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

 

 

Page 24


American Financial Group, Inc.

Net Investment Income

($ in millions)

  LOGO

 

     Three Months Ended     Nine Months Ended  
     9/30/19     6/30/19     3/31/19     12/31/18     9/30/18     09/30/19     09/30/18  

Property and Casualty Insurance:

              

Gross Investment Income

              

Fixed maturities - Available for sale

   $ 75     $ 79     $ 77     $ 74     $ 72     $ 231     $ 210  

Fixed maturities - Trading

     1       1       1       1       —         3       2  

Equity securities - dividends

     12       13       13       11       13       38       37  

Equity securities - MTM

     7       1       2       9       (1     10       4  

Equity in investees

     20       20       3       14       16       43       51  

AFG managed CLOs

     (2     2       3       (1     1       3       3  

Other investments (a)

     12       10       7       10       9       29       22  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Gross investment income

     125       126       106       118       110       357       329  

Investment expenses

     (1     (2     (2     (3     (2     (5     (6
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total net investment income

   $ 124     $ 124     $ 104     $ 115     $ 108     $ 352     $ 323  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Average cash and investments (b)

   $ 11,387     $ 11,193     $ 10,997     $ 10,651     $ 10,388     $ 11,192     $ 10,405  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Average yield (c)

     4.36     4.43     3.78     4.32     4.16     4.19     4.14
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Fixed Annuity

              

Gross Investment Income

              

Fixed maturities - Available for sale

   $ 393     $ 391     $ 384     $ 376     $ 361     $ 1,168     $ 1,049  

Equity securities - dividends

     9       8       9       9       6       26       21  

Equity securities - MTM

     7       3       3       2       —         13       11  

Equity in investees

     23       25       18       19       25       66       77  

AFG managed CLOs

     (3     3       8       (3     3       8       8  

Other investments (a)

     21       22       15       18       19       58       55  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Gross investment income

     450       452       437       421       414       1,339       1,221  

Investment expenses

     (4     (4     (4     (4     (3     (12     (9
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total net investment income

   $ 446     $ 448     $ 433     $ 417     $ 411     $ 1,327     $ 1,212  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Average cash and investments (b)

   $ 38,650     $ 37,907     $ 36,991     $ 35,993     $ 34,955     $ 37,849     $ 33,964  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Average yield (c)

     4.62     4.73     4.68     4.64     4.70     4.68     4.76
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

AFG consolidated net investment income:

              

Property & Casualty

   $ 124     $ 124     $ 104     $ 115     $ 108     $ 352     $ 323  

Annuity:

              

Fixed Annuity

     446       448       433       417       411       1,327       1,212  

Variable Annuity

     2       3       2       2       2       7       7  

Parent & other

     11       10       14       4       10       35       21  

Consolidate CLOs

     5       (5     (11     4       (4     (11     (11
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total net investment income

   $ 588     $ 580     $ 542     $ 542     $ 527     $ 1,710     $ 1,552  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

(a)

Includes income from mortgage loans, real estate, policy loans, short-term investments, and cash equivalents.

(b)

Average cash and investments is the average of the beginning and ending quarter balances, or the average of the five quarters balances.

(c)

Average yield is calculated by dividing investment income for the quarter by the average cash and investment balance over the quarter.

 

Page 25


American Financial Group, Inc.

Significant Investments Marked-to-Market Through Investment Income and Investments Accounted For Using the Equity Method

($ in millions)

  LOGO

 

     Three Months Ended     Nine Months Ended  
     9/30/19     6/30/19     3/31/19     12/31/18     9/30/18     09/30/19     09/30/18  

Property and Casualty Insurance:

              

Net Investment Income

              

Equity securities MTM through investment income (a)

   $ 7     $ 1     $ 2     $ 9     $ (1   $ 10     $ 4  

Investments accounted for using the equity method (b)

     20       20       3       14       16       43       51  

AFG managed CLOs (eliminated in consolidation)

     (2     2       3       (1     1       3       3  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total Property & Casualty

   $ 25     $ 23     $ 8     $ 22     $ 16     $ 56     $ 58  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Investments

              

Equity securities MTM through investment income (a)

   $ 77     $ 57     $ 52     $ 50     $ 40     $ 77     $ 40  

Investments accounted for using the equity method (b)

     625       614       578       557       520       625       520  

AFG managed CLOs (eliminated in consolidation)

     53       56       57       56       57       53       57  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total Property & Casualty

   $ 755     $ 727     $ 687     $ 663     $ 617     $ 755     $ 617  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Annualized Yield - Property & Casualty

     13.5     13.0     4.7     13.8     10.8     10.5     13.9

Fixed Annuity:

              

Net Investment Income

              

Equity securities MTM through investment income (a)

   $ 7     $ 3     $ 3     $ 2     $ —       $ 13     $ 11  

Investments accounted for using the equity method (b)

     23       25       18       19       25       66       77  

AFG managed CLOs (eliminated in consolidation)

     (3     3       8       (3     3       8       8  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total Fixed Annuity

   $ 27     $ 31     $ 29     $ 18     $ 28     $ 87     $ 96  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Investments

              

Equity securities MTM through investment income (a)

   $ 120     $ 101     $ 88     $ 84     $ 79     $ 120     $ 79  

Investments accounted for using the equity method (b)

     910       892       862       817       769       910       769  

AFG managed CLOs (eliminated in consolidation)

     125       135       136       132       134       125       134  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total Fixed Annuity

   $ 1,155     $ 1,128     $ 1,086     $ 1,033     $ 982     $ 1,155     $ 982  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Annualized Yield - Fixed Annuity

     9.5     11.2     10.9     7.1     11.7     10.5     14.3

Combined (includes Parent amounts not shown above):

 

           

Net Investment Income

              

Equity securities MTM through investment income (a)

   $ 17     $ 8     $ 11     $ 6     $ 1     $ 36     $ 16  

Investments accounted for using the equity method (b)

     43       45       21       33       41       109       128  

AFG managed CLOs (eliminated in consolidation)

     (5     5       11       (4     4       11       11  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total Combined (including Parent)

   $ 55     $ 58     $ 43     $ 35     $ 46     $ 156     $ 155  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Investments

              

Equity securities MTM through investment income (a)

   $ 262     $ 220     $ 198     $ 187     $ 176     $ 262     $ 176  

Investments accounted for using the equity method (b)

     1,535       1,506       1,440       1,374       1,289       1,535       1,289  

AFG managed CLOs (eliminated in consolidation)

     178       191       193       188       191       178       191  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total Combined (including Parent)

   $ 1,975     $ 1,917     $ 1,831     $ 1,749     $ 1,656     $ 1,975     $ 1,656  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Annualized Yield - Combined

     11.3     12.4     9.6     8.2     11.4     11.1     13.7

 

(a)

AFG carries the small portion of its equity securities previously classified as “trading” and investments in limited partnerships and similar investments that aren’t accounted for using the equity method at fair value through net investment income.

(b)

The majority of AFG’s investments accounted for using the equity method mark their underlying assets to market through net income.

 

Page 26


American Financial Group, Inc.

Fixed Maturities - By Security Type - AFG Consolidated

($ in millions )

  LOGO

 

                                 % of  
     Amortized             Unrealized      % of      Investment  

September 30, 2019

   Cost      Fair Value      Gain (Loss)      Fair Value      Portfolio  

US Government and government agencies

   $ 230      $ 234      $ 4        1      0

States, municipalities and political subdivisions

     6,543        6,988        445        15      13

Foreign government

     194        198        4        0      0

Residential mortgage-backed securities

     2,276        2,564        288        6      5

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

     928        966        38        2      2

Collateralized loan obligations

     4,319        4,314        (5      9      8

Other asset-backed securities

     5,540        5,731        191        13      11

Corporate and other bonds

     23,412        24,616        1,204        54      45
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total AFG consolidated

   $ 43,442      $ 45,611      $ 2,169        100      84
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Annualized yield on available for sale fixed maturities:

 

           

Excluding investment expense (a)

     4.39            

Net of investment expense (a)

     4.35            

Approximate average life and duration:

              

Approximate average life

     6 years              

Approximate duration

     4.5 years              
                                 % of  
     Amortized             Unrealized      % of      Investment  

December 31, 2018

   Cost      Fair Value      Gain (Loss)      Fair Value      Portfolio  

US Government and government agencies

   $ 245      $ 243      $ (2      1      1

States, municipalities and political subdivisions

     6,850        6,964        114        17      14

Foreign government

     166        168        2        0      0

Residential mortgage-backed securities

     2,478        2,746        268        7      6

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

     905        920        15        2      2

Collateralized loan obligations

     4,350        4,278        (72      10      9

Other asset-backed securities

     5,431        5,533        102        13      11

Corporate and other bonds

     21,517        21,250        (267      50      44
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total AFG consolidated

   $ 41,942      $ 42,102      $ 160        100      87
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Annualized yield on available for sale fixed maturities:

 

           

Excluding investment expense (a)

     4.47            

Net of investment expense (a)

     4.42            

Approximate average life and duration:

              

Approximate average life

     6 years              

Approximate duration

     4.5 years              

 

(a)

Annualized yield is calculated by dividing investment income for the quarter by the average cost over the quarter. Average cost is the average of the beginning and ending quarter asset balances.

 

Page 27


American Financial Group, Inc.

Fixed Maturities - By Security Type Portfolio

($ in millions )

   LOGO

 

     September 30, 2019     December 31, 2018  
     Amortized            Unrealized     % of     Amortized            Unrealized     % of  
Property and Casualty Insurance:    Cost     Fair Value      Gain (Loss)     Fair Value     Cost     Fair Value      Gain (Loss)     Fair Value  

US Government and government agencies

   $ 192     $ 195        3       2   $ 203     $ 202      $ (1     3

States, municipalities and political subdivisions

     2,456       2,555        99       32     2,630       2,642        12       33

Foreign government

     163       164        1       2     155       156        1       2

Residential mortgage-backed securities

     660       726        66       9     725       784        59       10

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

     93       96        3       1     83       84        1       1

Collateralized loan obligations

     898       897        (1     11     910       895        (15     12

Other asset-backed securities

     1,283       1,303        20       17     1,365       1,364        (1     17

Corporate and other bonds

     1,961       2,011        50       26     1,792       1,776        (16     22
  

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Property and Casualty Insurance

   $ 7,706     $ 7,947      $ 241       100   $ 7,863     $ 7,903      $ 40       100
  

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Annualized yield on available for sale fixed maturities:

                  

Excluding investment expense (a)

     3.86            3.91       

Net of investment expense (a)

     3.79            3.81       

Tax equivalent, net of investment expense (b)

     4.00            3.99       

Approximate average life and duration:

                  

Approximate average life

     4.5 years              4.5 years         

Approximate duration

     3.5 years              3.5 years         
     September 30, 2019     December 31, 2018  
     Amortized            Unrealized     % of     Amortized            Unrealized     % of  
Annuity and Run-off:    Cost     Fair Value      Gain (Loss)     Fair Value     Cost     Fair Value      Gain (Loss)     Fair Value  

US Government and government agencies

   $ 38     $ 39      $ 1       0   $ 42     $ 41      $ (1     0

States, municipalities and political subdivisions

     4,087       4,433        346       12     4,220       4,322        102       13

Foreign government

     31       34        3       0     11       12        1       0

Residential mortgage-backed securities

     1,614       1,827        213       5     1,750       1,950        200       6

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

     835       870        35       2     822       836        14       2

Collateralized loan obligations

     3,421       3,417        (4     9     3,440       3,383        (57     10

Other asset-backed securities

     4,257       4,428        171       12     4,066       4,169        103       12

Corporate and other bonds

     21,451       22,605        1,154       60     19,725       19,474        (251     57
  

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total Annuity and Run-off

   $ 35,734     $ 37,653      $ 1,919       100   $ 34,076     $ 34,187      $ 111       100
  

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Annualized yield on available for sale fixed maturities:

                  

Excluding investment expense (a)

     4.50            4.59       

Net of investment expense (a)

     4.47            4.55       

Approximate average life and duration:

                  

Approximate average life

     6 years              6.5 years         

Approximate duration

     4.5 years              4.5 years         

 

(a)

Annualized yield is calculated by dividing investment income for the quarter by the average cost over the quarter. Average cost is the average of the beginning and ending quarter asset balances.

(b)

Adjusts the yield on tax-exempt bonds to the fully taxable equivalent yield.

 

Page 28


American Financial Group, Inc.

Fixed Maturities - Credit Rating

($ in millions)

   LOGO

 

     September 30, 2019  

By Credit Rating (a)

   Amortized
Cost
     Fair Value      Unrealized
Gain (Loss)
     % of
Fair Value
 

Investment grade

           

AAA

   $ 7,669      $ 7,872      $ 203        17

AA

     8,493        8,931        438        20

A

     10,426        10,988        562        24

BBB

     12,956        13,654        698        30
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Subtotal - Investment grade

     39,544        41,445        1,901        91

BB

     709        711        2        2

B

     198        196        (2      0

Other (b)

     2,991        3,259        268        7
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Subtotal - Non-Investment grade

     3,898        4,166        268        9
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total

   $ 43,442      $ 45,611      $ 2,169        100
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

98% of the fixed maturity portfolio is NAIC designated 1 or 2.

 

     December 31, 2018  

By Credit Rating (a)

   Amortized
Cost
     Fair Value      Unrealized
Gain (Loss)
     % of
Fair Value
 

Investment grade

           

AAA

   $ 7,367      $ 7,359      $ (8)        17

AA

     8,714        8,831        117        21

A

     10,006        9,989        (17      24

BBB

     12,206        12,053        (153      29
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Subtotal - Investment grade

     38,293        38,232        (61      91

BB

     703        685        (18      2

B

     261        254        (7      0

Other (b)

     2,685        2,931        246        7
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Subtotal - Non-Investment grade

     3,649        3,870        221        9
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total

   $ 41,942      $ 42,102      $ 160        100
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

98% of the fixed maturity portfolio is NAIC designated 1 or 2.

 

(a)

If two agencies rate a security, the rating displayed above is the lower of the two; if three or more agencies rate a security, the rating displayed is the second lowest.

(b)

See page 33 for more information.

 

Page 29


American Financial Group, Inc.

Mortgage-Backed Securities - AFG Consolidated

($ in millions)

   LOGO

 

September 30, 2019

   Amortized
Cost
     Fair Value      Unrealized
Gain (Loss)
     % of
Fair Value
    % of
Investment
Portfolio
 

Residential

             

Agency

   $ 148      $ 150      $ 2        4     0

Prime (Non-Agency)

     881        1,006        125        29     2

Alt-A

     933        1,058        125        30     2

Subprime

     314        350        36        10     1

Commercial

     928        966        38        27     2
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total AFG consolidated

   $ 3,204      $ 3,530      $ 326        100     7
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

   

Substantially all of AFG’s MBS securities are either senior tranches of securitizations or collateralized by senior tranches of securitizations.

 

   

The average amortized cost as a percent of par is - Prime 82%; Alt-A 81%; Subprime 82%; CMBS 100%.

 

   

The average FICO score of our residential MBS securities is - Prime 733; Alt-A 695; Subprime 630.

 

   

96% of our Commercial MBS portfolio is investment-grade rated (83% AAA) and the average subordination for this group of assets is 36%.

 

   

The approximate average life by collateral type is - Residential 4.5 years; Commercial 3.5 years.

 

December 31, 2018

   Amortized
Cost
     Fair Value      Unrealized
Gain (Loss)
    % of
Fair Value
    % of
Investment
Portfolio
 

Residential

            

Agency

   $ 170      $ 168      $ (2     5     1

Prime (Non-Agency)

     967        1,098        131       30     2

Alt-A

     972        1,074        102       29     2

Subprime

     369        406        37       11     1

Commercial

     905        920        15       25     2
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total AFG consolidated

   $ 3,383      $ 3,666      $ 283       100     8
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

Page 30


American Financial Group, Inc.

Mortgage-Backed Securities Portfolio

($ in millions)

   LOGO

Property and Casualty Insurance:

 

     September 30, 2019  

By Asset Type

   Amortized
Cost
     Fair Value      Unrealized
Gain (Loss)
    % of
Fair Value
    % of Inv
Portfolio
 

Residential

            

Agency

   $ 117      $ 119      $ 2       14     1

Prime (Non-Agency)

     128        143        15       18     1

Alt-A

     276        312        36       38     3

Subprime

     139        152        13       18     1

Commercial

     93        96        3       12     1
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total

   $ 753      $ 822      $ 69       100     7
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 
     December 31, 2018  

By Asset Type

   Amortized
Cost
     Fair Value      Unrealized
Gain (Loss)
    % of Fair
Value
    % of Inv
Portfolio
 

Residential

            

Agency

   $ 137      $ 134      $ (3     15     1

Prime (Non-Agency)

     138        155        17       18     1

Alt-A

     289        319        30       37     3

Subprime

     161        176        15       20     2

Commercial

     83        84        1       10     1
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total

   $ 808      $ 868      $ 60       100     8
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Annuity and Run-off:

 

     September 30, 2019  

By Asset Type

   Amortized
Cost
     Fair Value      Unrealized
Gain (Loss)
     % of
Fair Value
    % of Inv
Portfolio
 

Residential

             

Agency

   $ 31      $ 31      $ —          1     0

Prime (Non-Agency)

     751        852        101        32     2

Alt-A

     657        746        89        28     2

Subprime

     175        198        23        7     0

Commercial

     835        870        35        32     2
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total

   $ 2,449      $ 2,697      $ 248        100     6
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 
     December 31, 2018  

By Asset Type

   Amortized
Cost
     Fair Value      Unrealized
Gain (Loss)
     % of Fair
Value
    % of Inv
Portfolio
 

Residential

             

Agency

   $ 33      $ 34      $ 1        1     0

Prime (Non-Agency)

     826        931        105        34     2

Alt-A

     683        755        72        27     2

Subprime

     208        230        22        8     1

Commercial

     822        836        14        30     2
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total

   $ 2,572      $ 2,786      $ 214        100     7
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

Page 31


American Financial Group, Inc.

Mortgage-Backed Securities - Credit Rating

($ in millions)

  LOGO

 

     September 30, 2019  

By Credit Rating (a)

   Amortized
Cost
     Fair Value      Unrealized
Gain (Loss)
     % of
Fair Value
 

Investment grade

           

AAA

   $ 1,147      $ 1,192      $ 45        34

AA

     151        159        8        5

A

     275        296        21        8

BBB

     198        212        14        6
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Subtotal - investment grade

     1,771        1,859        88        53

BB

     105        106        1        3

B

     114        115        1        3

Other (b)

     1,214        1,450        236        41
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total

   $ 3,204      $ 3,530      $ 326        100
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

94% of the mortgage-backed security portfolio has an NAIC 1 designation.

 

     December 31, 2018  

By Credit Rating (a)

   Amortized
Cost
     Fair Value      Unrealized
Gain (Loss)
     % of
Fair Value
 

Investment grade

           

AAA

   $ 1,107      $ 1,119      $ 12        31

AA

     143        147        4        4

A

     263        270        7        7

BBB

     232        243        11        7
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Subtotal - investment grade

     1,745        1,779        34        49

BB

     128        131        3        3

B

     155        154        (1      4

Other (b)

     1,355        1,602        247        44
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total

   $ 3,383      $ 3,666      $ 283        100
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

96% of the mortgage-backed security portfolio has an NAIC 1 designation.

 

(a)

If two agencies rate a security, the rating displayed above is the lower of the two; if three or more agencies rate a security, the rating displayed is the second lowest.

(b)

See page 33 for more information.

 

Page 32


Appendix A

American Financial Group, Inc.

Fixed Maturities - Credit Rating by Type

($ in millions)

  LOGO

 

    Fair Value - September 30, 2019  

By Credit Rating (a)

  US Gov     Munis     Frgn Gov     RMBS     CMBS     CLOs     Other ABS     Corp/Oth     Total     % Total  

Investment grade

                   

AAA

  $ 225     $ 2,032     $ 108     $ 391     $ 801     $ 2,904     $ 1,228     $ 183     $ 7,872       17

AA

    9       4,368       74       136       23       1,096       1,438       1,787       8,931       20

A

    —         422       —         274       22       243       2,001       8,026       10,988       24

BBB

    —         97       3       133       79       49       726       12,567       13,654       30
 

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Subtotal - Investment grade

    234       6,919       185       934       925       4,292       5,393       22,563       41,445       91

BB

    —         9       —         75       31       —         28       568       711       2

B

    —         —         —         115       —         —         7       74       196       0

CCC, CC, C

    —         —         —         588       4       —         2       35       629       2

D

    —         —         —         201       6       —         —         —         207       0
 

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Subtotal - Non-Investment grade

    —         9       —         979       41       —         37       677       1,743       4

Not Rated

    —         60       13       651       —         22       301       1,376       2,423       5
 

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total

  $ 234     $ 6,988     $ 198     $ 2,564     $ 966     $ 4,314     $ 5,731     $ 24,616     $ 45,611       100
 

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 
    Fair Value - December 31, 2018  

By Credit Rating (a)

  US Gov     Munis     Frgn Gov     RMBS     CMBS     CLOs     Other ABS     Corp/Oth     Total     % Total  

Investment grade

                   

AAA

  $ 213     $ 1,889     $ 98     $ 367     $ 752     $ 2,679     $ 1,191     $ 170     $ 7,359       17

AA

    22       4,456       53       129       18       1,244       1,326       1,583       8,831       21

A

    —         448       —         248       22       250       1,836       7,185       9,989       24

BBB

    —         110       —         169       74       84       685       10,931       12,053       29
 

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Subtotal - Investment grade

    235       6,903       151       913       866       4,257       5,038       19,869       38,232       91

BB

    —         —         —         97       34       —         23       531       685       2

B

    —         8       —         151       3       —         4       88       254       0

CCC, CC, C

    —         —         —         670       5       —         2       12       689       2

D

    —         3       —         230       —         —         —         1       234       1
 

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Subtotal - Non-Investment grade

    —         11       —         1,148       42       —         29       632       1,862       5

Not Rated

    8       50       17       685       12       21       466       749       2,008       4
 

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total

  $ 243     $ 6,964     $ 168     $ 2,746     $ 920     $ 4,278     $ 5,533     $ 21,250     $ 42,102       100
 

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

(a)

If two agencies rate a security, the rating displayed above is the lower of the two; if three or more agencies rate a security, the rating displayed is the second lowest.

 

Page 33